Friday, September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Projections Wobbling a Bit

But, it doesn't really matter if the "center" wobbles because the storm is so big.
Be sure to check out the last Hurricane Local Statement (from this link). It just came out within the last half hour. There is lots of information about storm surge levels, high tide times, all evacuations (with the zip codes if needed) and bus pickup points.

The storm now has maximum winds only 55 to 65 miles from the center (remember last night it was 75 to 85). The maximum was on the north side. So, the Hurricane Center raised the wind to 105 mph. If it gets to 111, it will officially be a major hurricane. And that could still happen.

There is some evidence of shear...but the storm has actually strengthened. Also, just looking at the satellite looks to me like an eye is trying to form. But, I'm also noticing some dry slots in the banding.

Nevertheless, wow!...this storm is a monster.

Center landfall looks like it will be around midnight tonight. But the hurricane force winds will start arriving early evening on the coast.

Storm surge is already arriving with tides reported 3 feet up already.

Galveston Island sea wall is 17 feet on the ocean side (this is on the east side of the island). Remember, there is no sea wall on the west side. And also remember that there is no sea wall on the inland side of the island. During Hurricane Carla back in 1961, Galveston had 6 feet of water that came in on the inland side. But it was more gentle than having the angry ocean coming in.

More to come.

One more thing, the models are slightly back to the west...none of the better ones showing center landfall east of Galveston.

Be safe everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

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