Heavy Rain in Houston Forecast/Twilight Midnight Madness

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex made landfall about 105 miles south of Brownsville this evening and had 105 mph winds at landfall (a Category 2 hurricane). Very heavy rain has fallen in the valley (8 inches as of 8 pm this evening in Cameron County--where I grew up). So far, there have been 3 tornadoes in the valley, one in Refugio, and one in Matagorda. South Texas is under a tornado watch until 4 am. Ongoing concern is flash flooding and numerous counties in Texas are under a flash flood watch (see figure at right). This includes the hill country and counties along the Rio Grande. With weak steering environment, we will have to watch the dieing storm for copious rains that lead to deadly flash flooding. Almost all of the models track the storm west and then northwest and north into just west of the Texas Hill Country.

Houston area, be on the lookout for heavy rain with the heaviest potentially on Friday. Also, there has been some coastal flooding and a coastal flood warning remains in effect.

Here is the advisory from the National Weather Service:
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY...

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.8 TO 2.6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BAY
AND 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE BEACHES. THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE
GOING INTO LOW TIDE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN
ABOUT AS THEY ARE OR SLIGHTLY DROP...THEN GO BACK UP TOWARD HIGH TIDE AROUND
815 AM. THERE IS ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING TAKING PLACE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87
ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA ARE CLOSED. WATER 18 INCHES DEEP IS BEING OBSERVED COVERING THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124. OTHER COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST END
OF GALVESTON ISLAND ARE REPORTING WATER OVER BULKHEADS AND SOME WATER IN YARDS.
LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT CAUSING WAVE RUN-UP ISSUES
ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.

THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION
OF THE LARGE BATTERING WAVES AND EXTENSIVE BEACH FLOODING. SWIMMERS
SHOULD AVOID THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

THESE HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY RECEDE.

So there have been some flooded roadways in the usual trouble spots.

Some models hint at development that moves up the eastern seaboard middle of the coming week...stay tuned.

On Thursday, there is a risk for severe storms in Montana and North Dakota.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do rain or lluvia, pronounced you-VEE-ah. The lluvia could get very heavy, even in Houston.

Hers's something to do on a rainy day, have your child be entertained and educated by watching Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. I just saw them on the shelf of Barnes and Noble in Sugar Land today. Or, order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Megan and I went to a midnight showing of Twilight (early today). It was amazing how many people were there including mothers with several youngish children (like 9 or 10). The atmosphere was supercharged and there were lots of gals sporting Team Jacob or Team Edward tops. I thought the movie was great and very close to the book with some minimal treatments as necessary so that the film be around 2 hours. Jacob was smoking hot as noted by the screams from the audience every time he made an appearance. I asked one of the theater employees when she would be getting off work and she said 7 am. She added that there would be a 3 am showing and then another showing at 7 am. I would have liked to have seen how many people came for the 7 am. I can tell you that we got into the theater at 11 pm and most of the seats were taken. And when we came out, there were people waiting to see the show at 3 am.

I also noticed at a couple places with Twilight stuff (including Barnes & Noble today), that is there is more Edward than Jacob stuff. That could be because all of the Jacob stuff is getting bought up or the suppliers gave the retail outlets more Edward stuff to sell. What do you think? By the way, I'll have the results of the Twilight poll on my next post.

Have a good Thursday everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Alex - Better News for Houston Area

Houston area breathing a little easier this Tuesday morning with latest round of models indicating northern Mexico/south Texas landfall very early Thursday much more likely. Looks like the storm will be a Category 2 at landfall. If the storm does manage to jog a big further to north and make landfall around Port Mansfield...surge will be much higher toward Corpus and impact will be much improved for lower Rio Grande Valley. Still too soon to tell for sure with error plus/minus about 100 miles at this point.

Houston area impacts...2 to 4 foot storm surge...rain bands.

The storm is large...so all of Texas coast getting some impact.

For lower Texas coast...up to 8 foot storm surge...be ready for it by Wednesday afternoon. Lots of rain and winds could be 95 to 100 at landfall.

Models have come back into agreement this afternoon and the storm is no moving toward northwest (instead of North-northwest)...so turning has begun.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Alex Update

Technical trouble updating my figures...sorry about that.

I've been watching the models and of course the storm. Very little steering this storm. Models have been all over the place. My feeling is that the storm will move in around Corpus and head north-northwest bringing rain to south and southeast Texas. However, with the last round of model runs...I am seeing at least one favored model supporting a close to valley hit. The storm is having to deal with some wind shear and the fact that it is not moving much is not optimal for development, due to upwelling of cooler water.

Remember that we still have large errors 2 to 3 days out. So, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

At a minimum, get your supplies together and be thinking about potential flooding.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Weather through Mid-Week/1st Tropical Storm Alex

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the western Caribbean. As I write this post on Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Reconaissance report is that the winds are already at 65 mph. If it makes it to 74 mph, then it will be a hurricane. But the storm will be hitting Belize in a few hours and likely crossing over the Yucatan, weakening and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Almost all forecast models now agree on it moving across the southern Gulf into Mexico by mid-week. The National Hurricane Center forecast has it very close to hurricane strength before the 2nd landfall.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Celia is moving westward and weakening. Hurricane Darby has also weakened and is forecast to move west and then turn northeast as it weakens and turns into a rainmaker.

In the US, a moderate risk for severe weather today in the 4 corners region of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. On Sunday, there will be some storms from the southwest through the Midwest into the Great Lakes and into the southeast. It will be very hot across the southwest with highs in the 100s and 90s for the rest of the south except coastal California which will have highs in the 60s. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s across the northern states.

Houston will be a tiny bit less humid on Sunday with only about a 10% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. On Monday through Wednesday, tropical flow returns with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do hurricane or huracán, pronounced hoo-rah-CAHN. What is the average date of the first huracán forming in the Atlantic basin. Find out in the AND MORE section.

Learning more than one language at an early age has been shown to increase math and science scores on standardized tests during later years. Who knows, your multi-lingual child could solve the big science problems? Get them excited about language early...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
I'm hearing a lot of grumbling that a storm forming in late June is soooooooooooo unusual. Actually, a storm forms in the Atlantic basin in June once every 2 years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for years 1966 through 2009, the average 1st named storm is 7/9, 1st hurricane is 8/10 and 1st major hurricane is September 4th. Now, if Alex becomes a hurricane, that will be rather early.

I also looked up the statistics for hurricanes hitting Texas in June. According to George W. Bomar's book Texas Weather, 2nd Edition Revised, here are some June strikes for Texas for the month of June for the years 1900 through 1989:
1913 June 27th Padre Island 100 mph winds at landfall
1921 June 22nd Port O'Connor 110 mph winds at landfall
1929 June 28th Port O'Connor 100 mph winds at landfall
1936 June 27th Port Aransas 80 mph winds at landfall
1957 June 27th Near Sabine Pass 100 mph winds at landfall (Audrey)
1986 June 26th Sea Rim State Park 87 mph winds at landfall (Bonnie)
And, I checked NOAA's archive for 1950 to 2009 and there were no June hurricane strikes from 1990 to 2009.
So, a June hurricane strike on Texas is rare.

Also, another interesting statistic I figured out, between these 2 sources for the total time period 1900 to 2009, there
are no July hurricanes strikes on Texas until at least July 15th.

I have a new poll for Twilight Enthusiasts and non-enthusiasts. Are you planning to see it or not? If so, when? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

Have a great weekend and for all of you heading out on vacation--safe travel.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Western Caribbean Disturbance/3 Month Weather Outlooks

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Western Caribbean system getting it's act together and National Hurricane Center giving it 60% chance of becoming an organized tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Models are still divergent. But the more "reliable" models take it into the Gulf and turn it northward and then northeastward. I don't even like to look at intensity forecasts as they are so unreliable. What I have seen generally shows an increase in strength and then a decrease and then an increase. Might note that early season storms are not known to be super strong wind wise. So that is a comfort. But, we have a lot of hurricane season left.

In the Pacific, Celia is a major hurricane--forecast to move generally westward and then eventually weaken after strengthening a bit more. Then there is the new hurricane...Darby...just off the western Mexican coast. This storm is forecast to strengthen slightly and move northwestward and then weaken as it turns northeast (aiming toward Mexico but due to continued weakening, likely to be nothing more than a rain maker if it makes it to Mexico).

On Friday, look for 60s, 70s and 80s on the west coast and northern states with 80s and 90s elsewhere and some 100s in the southwest. There will be some severe storms in the northern plains over to the western Great Lakes.

Houston will continue to swelter with a few thunderstorms. As I write this block, there are some lovely thunderstorms in the area...the rain sounds wonderful. The grass will be growing fast! A hot and humid weekend on the way with a few showers or thunderstorms each day...better chance midweek as an upper trough swings by to the north.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do debut or debutar, pronounced day-byoo-TAR. When will Positively Houston debutar...why it already did today! Find out more in the AND MORE section.

Your kids will be laughing, singing, dancing and most importantly learning when you order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
I've updated the 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. For Houston the outlook is for above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures...yikes...talk about your Amazon rainforest scenario. And it has been just that, with high temperatures (upper 90s) combined with very high humidity levels...making it feel like 105 most of the afternoon. This is that kind of heat and humidity where just being outside, even in the shade, is not comfortable.

I've also updated the drought monitor and outlook. Most of the country is not in severe drought and the outlook is mainly for persistence. So overall, drought not a huge problem nationwide.

The poll on eyelash extensions is closed. 40% of respondents said they would consider getting extensions while 60% said they would not. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated. I'll try to have a new poll in my next post.

Positively Houston premiered tonight! This is the good news program where I helped with the weather portion. Here is an overview of where you can see it from creator Christina Maxwell:

Positively Houston premiered tonight on Houston PBS 8.2 with The Weather Research Center at the John C. Freeman Weather Museum and will run a total of 44 times on the stations below until our next episode. Positively Houston will also air on other networks like HCC Television which are watched by several thousand people. HTV airs in all government buildings in Houston so we are likely to be seen by everyone waiting for Jury Duty as well.

This project is the fruition of 5 years of hard work and vision by Christina Maxwell. Congratulations Christina!!!

Have a fantastic Friday and weekend!!!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Caribbean Disturbance

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Just a quick update this evening to tell you that I am continuing to watch the disturbed area in the Caribbean. In a couple days the environment it is in will be more favorable for development. In the meantime, it is a rainmaker. Run to run, models are very inconsistent. But today's model runs all show it turning after entering the Gulf and veering toward the north central Gulf or northeastern Gulf.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Celia winds are down to 90...a slight increase and then decrease in strength anticipated by hurricane center over the next 5 days...with no threat to land. Further to east, Tropical Depression 5E has formed.

Houston highs have been in the upper 90s for several days...not quite records but very close and feeling like 105 due to the humidity. Wednesday and Thursday, look for some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon to cool things off.

Moderate risk for severe storms on Wednesday for the southern Great Lakes. And slight risk for a larger area around that.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do summer or verano, pronounced vair-RAH-noh. It's official...we're in verano.

Stimulate young minds over the summer break...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Summer has arrived...according to the US Naval Observatory, it arrived at 5:28 am yesterday (June 21st). And the Houston area has been sweltering, our family in Iowa has had many days of mild weather so far.

Stay cool!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hot and Sticky/Hurricane Celia/Houston-Galveston Hurricane Workshop

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Things really getting busy in the Pacific with Hurricane Celia in the eastern Pacific...no threat to land but expected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) on Tuesday. What is left of tropical depression Blas will continue to weaken as it moves westward and there is new area of disturbed weather just west of Acapulco.

In the Atlantic basin, 2 areas of disturbed weather...one threatening heavy rain for Haiti (and already brought heavy rain to Puerto Rico) with almost no chance of developing over the next couple of days as it moves westward and another near the southern Windward Islands. Hi Mollie and Kevin in Trinidad...are you getting wet? That one has less than a 10% chance of developing according to the National Hurricane Center. Long range models show something trying to get organized in the central Gulf next weekend...so stay tuned.

On Monday, very hot and steamy for the southern and eastern US. Pleasant for the west coast and northern Rockies with highs in the 60s up to low 80s. Some severe weather Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Houston, this is the drill and it hurts...hot and humid all week. Maybe a few sea breeze afternoon storms late in the week...no big changes on the horizon.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do oil or petróleo, pronounced peh-TROH-lay-oh. I found out that people are worried about hurricane season and the petróleo spill. Find out how I learned that in the AND MORE section.

Birthday gift or just a special treat...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
The Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop was well attended on Saturday June 19th. It was held in the George R. Brown Convention Center and as you know the building is blocks long. Well, I accidentally walked into the Gun Show and was immediately asked if I would like to sign up for NRA membership. Well, I finally got to the right place and enjoyed working with many of the on air meteorologists in the Houston market. There were two sessions where they fielded questions from an audience and I was the moderator. There was a slightly different mix of on air meteorologists during the 2 sessions due to schedules and autograph signings.

The oil spill was very much on the minds of folks in both sessions. They wanted to know if a hurricane could move the oil toward the Texas coast. Generally, the panel answered that yes it could happen but that depending on the storm, a hurricane might actually help mix the oil out over a larger area. On the down side, oil might be pushed into our estuaries and riverways. One thing that was clarified is that you should not worry about the spill causing oil rain or acid rain.

I remember the oil spell from the Bay of Campeche Explosion in 1979. South Padre Island beaches got dirty and it was a nuisance but generally speaking, we just cleaned the oil off our feet and shoes. Eventually, a storm named Frederick helped disperse the oil. So, looking back on that, maybe a hurricane would be helpful.

I went to Bill Read's talk. He is the head of the National Hurricane Center. He pointed out that for every 4 evacuations you are asked to make, only 1 will be for an actual catastrophic hit. The point was if you have evacuated 2 or 3 times and nothing happened, don't ignore additional evacuations, because that might be the one you really need to make.

Happy Father's Day to all you dads.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman