Hurricane Ike Aftermath - Fluctuations in Power...arrrghh!!!

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

Happy First Day of Fall...It is the autumnal equinox and according to the U.S. Naval Observatory, the official start is at 9:44 am this morning. This is the date in the Northern Hemisphere when the length of night and day are approximately the same (12 hours). The length of daylight will now be less than the length of night and will continue to decrease.

Just when Briargate Elementary attendees were getting ready to go back to school, rats!...the power went out again. Here is the latest update from the Fort Bend ISD web site:

Update about Briargate Elementary--Overnight there was a power outage at Briargate Elementary and classes are canceled at Briargate on Monday, Sept. 22. All Fort Bend ISD campuses will open for classes at their normal time on Monday, Sept. 22., except for the five campuses listed below with no power. The status of these campuses will be updated on Monday.Campuses with NO POWER are: Briargate Elementary and Ridgegate Elementary Schools; also Quail Valley Middle, and Christa McAuliffe Middle Schools; also Willowridge High School.

A big improvement to the Centerpoint numbers!!!...66% now have power (which means 34% do not). I am changing the Centerpoint map at right...I like the color coded to indicate percentage of those without power. The dark red indicates those with more than 80% without power. My daughter's 1st grade teacher in Quail Valley told me this a.m. that they still do not have power! To see all the latest outage maps and updates, go to http://www.centerpointenergy.com/staticfiles/ike/ike.html.

Getting lots of interesting emails from blog followers. Charlie Richards sent me this link to NASA satellite imagery following Ike.

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM

There are lots and lots of spots you can check out! Thanks Charlie!

Peyton Cascarelli sent me the new photo posted to the left...a metal pole stuck through a tree trunk (which as you can see has been cut to a more manageable size). Anyway, you have probably seen some of the tornado related photos of straw through trees etc. One theory is that when the wind is blowing hard and bending trunks, cracks open which allow flying debris to penetrate and then when the trunk straightens back up, the object is lodged inside. Maybe that is what happened here. Thanks Peyton!

Invest 93 has brought torrential rain to Puerto Rico and more is likely. The eastern Dominican Republic will also have to deal with dangerously large amounts of rain. Here is part of the National Hurricane Center advisory.
INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS ANDCAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Also, it is moving west-northwesterly now, it should start moving northward soon. A non-tropical low will be forming off the eastern seaboard...models have been showing that feature for days. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Folks along the east coast should also monitor developments. It may be a problem from eastern North Carolina and possibly anywhere from New Jersey to southern New England.

Locally, just warm (mid to upper 80s for highs) and humid with a slight dip in humidity starting Thursday. The next noticeable cold front arrives a week from Tuesday. Looks dry (little to no rain through the next 9 days or so).

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY
For those with power, things are starting to feel more routine. We are so much more comfortable when we can keep our regular routine or in Spanish rutina, pronounced roo-tee-nah. With Sarah back at school, we are back to our normal rutina.

Our children's DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco Volume 1 has been recognized as a Top 10 Educational Product for 2008 by Dr. Toy. Now that you have your power back, get a jump on the holidays by buying the perfect children's gift...my award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE
The First Colony Library of the Fort Bend Library system has water and roof damage and is closed indefinitely. I have been following this closely as I had a book due back. It was originally due back on the 11th but there was a message posted that for any of the Fort Bend libraries, there will be no fines for books due from the 10th through the 22nd. Also, there are some extensions being allowed as well. As far as returning books that would have gone back to the First Colony Library, they can be returned to another Fort Bend Library location. For details, go to http://www.fortbend.lib.tx.us/.

On Wednesday, the 10th of September, I had the privilege to speak to a local Mocha Moms group. It was just so timely. As you know, I am selling a DVD which teaches Spanish to children. So, I give talks about the benefits of early language learning. I did an abbreviated version of that, but I lengthened the hurricane preparation part of my talk because of Ike. Some of the moms were recently moved into the area and had no idea what to expect from a hurricane. I was so glad to be able to give them instructions on what to do that very afternoon! Unfortunately, I was also scheduled to speak to the Mom's Club of Clear Lake on Monday, 9/15. I have yet to be able to reach my contact with the group. I was so sad that I had not had the chance to give these ladies vital hurricane preparation information. Now, they could probably teach me a thing or two about dealing with storms!!!

By the way, if you know anyone who would be interested in an early language and/or hurricane preparation and/or other weather topic talk, please have them contact me at 713-823-4401 or cecilia_sinclair@yahoo.com.

Have a good day everyone and praying for the return of everyone's electricity.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

And Yet Even More FBISD Schools Will Open Monday!!!

Three more schools now have power and will be open on Monday 9/22.

Update: Sun., Sept. 21, at 6:45p.m. As of 6:30 p.m. today, Missouri City Middle School, Briargate Elementary and E.A. Jones Elementary have regained power and will be open for students in the morning. Please see below for other campuses that regained power today to be able to reopen on Monday, Sept. 22.

More FBISD Schools Have Power--To Open on Monday 9/22!

5:52 pm - Even more FBISD schools will be open on Monday!!!

Update: Sun., Sept. 21, at 5:15 p.m.As of 5:00 pm today, the following campuses have regained power today and will be open for students in the morning: Dulles High, Hightower High, Progressive High, the Technical Education Center; also Dulles Middle and First Colony Middle; and Dulles Elem. and Lexington Creek Elem.

A Few More Schools Open in Fort Bend ISD

Here is the message per the Ft. Bend web site as of 4:42 pm on Sunday. I will check back later this afternoon to see if any other campuses have regained power.

Update: Sun., Sept. 21, at 11:00 a.m.Three more campuses have regained power and will be open for classes in the morning, Sept. 22. Students should report to class at: Sugar Land Middle, Arizona Fleming Elem., and Lantern Lane Elem. Other campuses are expected to regain power later today. Please check the website late this afternoon to see if your campus regains power and will be open for class tomorrow. All district campuses with power will open for classes at their normal time on Monday, Sept. 22. If your campus is not on the “no power” list (scroll down to see below), then your campus has power and you should report to school on Monday. Campuses with NO POWER are: Briargate, Dulles, E.A. Jones, Lexington Creek, and Ridgegate Elementary Schools; also Quail Valley Middle, Missouri City Middle, Christa McAuliffe Middle, First Colony Middle, and Dulles Middle Schools; also Dulles High, Hightower High, Progressive High, and Willowridge High Schools.

Hurricane Ike Recovery - Getting Tedious and Hot

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
First of all, how about some good news for us? That area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean is moving to the north-northwest and all indications (models/steering environment) strongly suggest that the system will move over Puerto Rico and toward the Bahamas...very likely even missing the east coast. It is getting better organized and will probably become a tropical depression today.

Other than that, nice and quiet in the tropics!

Still, it is warm/hot and muggy again. And now, the return to power has slowed because the work is becoming more small scale as power is returned block by block. As I write this, the Sunday report is not yet available. The latest report from Centerpoint Energy is that as of noon Saturday, 54% have power.

Here is the link:
http://www.centerpointenergy.com/staticfiles/ike/outages.html

Here is some more good news...looks like that back door cold front may arrive a few days early...around mid-week. Don't get too excited...it just looks like we'll have a slight dip in humidity. But hey, that's better than no dip. Also, I don't think it will be quite so hot. Sunday through Tuesday will be the warmest days of the week. Today's highs will make it to 90 in spots.

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY
Today's word is air conditioning -- aire acondicionado pronounced eye-ray ah-cone-dih-see-oh-nah-doe. Oh, I love that term...just rolls off the tongue.

AND MORE
BIG UPDATE FOR SCHOOLS IN FORT BEND ISD

Several campuses still have no power as of 12:30 pm on Saturday. So the plan is NO SCHOOL for these sites. But you never know if there could be a change today, so be sure to check the Fort Bend ISD web site: http://www.fortbendisd.com/

Here is the list of schools which will NOT be open on Monday.

Campuses with NO POWER are: Arizona Fleming, Briargate, Dulles, E.A. Jones, Lantern Lane, Lexington Creek, and Ridgegate Elementary; also Sugar Land Middle, Quail Valley Middle, Missouri City Middle, Christa McAuliffe Middle, First Colony Middle, and Dulles Middle; also Dulles High, Hightower High, Progressive High, and Willowridge High Schools.

For Galveston, the phased return plan has been scrapped. Now residents will be allowed to come back on Wednesday. Starting on Wednesday at 6 am, those whose homes are "habitable" can come back to stay. Others can return, but they will have to leave.

Well stay cool everyone and be safe!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Post Hurricane Damage and Other Developments

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
I am posting the latest Centerpoint Outage map as usual...this one as of 8 am Saturday, showing 47% without power (which means 53% have power). So, more than half have power!!! We have passed the halfway mark! The new color coded map is great, showing by zip code, when power should return to a majority of residents in that zip code.

Here is the link so you can check it all out in detail.
http://www.centerpointenergy.com/staticfiles/ike/outages.html

What I noticed from a quick review of the zip code map is that every zip code within Beltway 8 should have power by Thursday, September 25th, except for the zip code 77027 which will take longer. Again, these are projections from Centerpoint. And, the majority of the Sugar Land/Galveston area will be up by Monday, 9/22. That is when school starts in FBISD. Remember that Centerpoint is only 1 of 4 companies supplying power in the area. I hope you will forgive me for not talking about the others. I focus on Centerpoint as it affects the largest population.

There are some interesting before/after Ike aerial photos for Galveston, Bolivar Peninsula and High Island available through the USGS web site. I am including a 2 locations at right with the map showing the path of Ike. For Bolivar, I am showing the picture from point #2 (on the map) and for Galveston I ams showing the picture from point #5 (on the map). I believe that Galveston photo is showing the Balinese room--a structure of historical interest which has had to be rebuilt before. The after photo shows no structure at all, but you can make out the remains of the pier. See the hotel on shore? I think that is the Galvez. If this is wrong, please let me now. See the link below for more photos:

http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/bolivar.html

Weather will be hot (according to whether you have electricity) and humid for the weekend and coming week. Everyone needs to slow down and drink lots and lots of water. Please take someone in who does not have electricity. We might get a weak push of drier air through a backdoor cold front toward the early part of the coming week...around the 28th or 29th but even this does not look very promising.

The area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean is getting slightly better organized. Steering environment looks like it will push it toward Florida or the Bahamas. This could become a tropical depression in a day or so.

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY
As I spoke to one friend in Sugar Land who is still without power, he said his irritability is directly correlated with the length of time without power. It is extremely hard to be patient especially as it gets hotter. So patience is our word for today...in Spanish it is paciencia, pronounced pah-see-ane-see-ah. We need lots of paciencia right now!

AND MORE
HISD is now planning to phase in the return to school according to which schools have power. They may use generators in some capacity for the others, if the return to power takes too long. They are thinking about having 7 days of makeup and/or possibly making the kids go an extra hour each day for a while. Of course, there are criticisms and concerns. So, we shall see what they ultimately decide.

I know that the requirement to make up days can be waived if there were fewer than 2 weeks missed. But after 2 weeks of missed school, some days have to be made up. It is at the discretion of the school districts to decide if they want to use the waiver or not.

I hope that those of you who have a broken weatherhead on your home (that is where the line drop brings power into the house) know that you have to have a the weatherhead fixed before power can be returned. The power companies can not do this for you. In fact, usually a permit is required to make the fix. But that requirement has been waived in Houston. You will need a certified electrician to come out and fix it.

Galveston is considering allowing a phased in return to the island. But there are huge concerns about health issues as water, power, sewage are nearly nonexistent. If the phase-in is implemented, residents will be allowed to return to the least affected areas first. Stay tuned for more developments on that.

I hope that everyone who has lost power has cleaned out their refrigerators. Phillip Free suggests you put a layer of foil with about 20 pieces of charcoal in the fridge. He did that before he left town. He wasn't sure if this would help get rid of odors after the stink sets in. But he said it would be worth a try. I would suggest that if you left food in your fridge/freezer and you are still out of town and you know there is no power, you have someone clean it out for you and put in some charcoal no matter what.

Be safe everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Watching Tropics after Hurricane Ike and Pondering

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

First of all let me tell you that the area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean is slightly more active. Right now, there is enough shear to keep it from developing but in a couple days, that will not be the case as it moves generally westward. Early model runs show a variety of paths but it is too soon to guess what the ultimate destination will be.

46% of the Centerpoint customers are still without power. This is a huge concern as our nice break from the humidity is almost gone. It will be warm and muggy especially starting Saturday and continuing through the upcoming week. If you know someone without power, take them in! Highs will reach 90 in some places as early as Sunday. Rain chances are slim. And now it doesn't look like a cold front will reach us at the end of the coming week. So warm and muggy will be the story for a while.

Fort Bend schools are set to open on Monday, even with about half of the area still without power. To the right you will see the outage map I have been showing, but I am also putting up the figure which shows outage percentage by zip code map. Of course it is quite tiny. So here is the link, so you can make it big enough to read. I know HISD has had to postpone plans to reopen their schools. Less than half of the schools have power so far.

http://www.centerpointenergy.com/staticfiles/ike/outages.html

And if you want to see the projected timeline for returning to almost full power, see the following list (which is also on the web site).

CenterPoint Energy announced today that based on damage assessment data obtained over the last few days, the company projects the following timeline, indicating approximately 80 percent restoration per region:
The following zip codes are estimated to have substantial power restoration by the end of day on Friday, September 19:
77065, 77094, 77095, 77354, 77355, 77356, 77362, 77375, 77377, 77382, 77384, 77418, 77420, 77423, 77429, 77430, 77433, 77434, 77435, 77441, 77444, 77445, 77447, 77449, 77450, 77461, 77468, 77469, 77471, 77474, 77479, 77482, 77484, 77486, 77488, 77493, 77494
The following zip codes are estimated to have substantial power restoration by the end of day on Monday, September 22:
77024, 77031, 77032, 77039, 77041, 77042, 77043, 77050, 77055, 77072, 77077, 77079, 77080, 77082, 77083, 77084, 77092, 77099, 77336, 77338, 77339, 77346, 77357, 77365, 77373, 77386, 77396, 77459, 77477, 77478, 77479, 77511, 77515, 77534, 77577, 77583
The following zip codes have sustained extensive damage, and will therefore have a restoration timeline that extends beyond Monday, September 22:
77002, 77003, 77004, 77005, 77006, 77007, 77008, 77009, 77010, 77011, 77012, 77013, 77014, 77015, 77016, 77017, 77018, 77019, 77020, 77021, 77022, 77023, 77025, 77026, 77027, 77028, 77029, 77030, 77033, 77034, 77035, 77036, 77037, 77038, 77040, 77044, 77045, 77046, 77047, 77048, 77049, 77051, 77053, 77054, 77056, 77057, 77058, 77059, 77060, 77061, 77062, 77063, 77064, 77066, 77067, 77068, 77069, 77070, 77071, 77073, 77074, 77075, 77076, 77078, 77081, 77085, 77086, 77087, 77088, 77089, 77090, 77091, 77093, 77096, 77098, 77379, 77380, 77386, 77388, 77389, 77401, 77422, 77459, 77489, 77502, 77503, 77504, 77505, 77506, 77507, 77510, 77515, 77517, 77518, 77520, 77521, 77530, 77531, 77532, 77534, 77535, 77536, 77539, 77541, 77545, 77546, 77547, 77550, 77551, 77554, 77562, 77563, 77565, 77566, 77568, 77571, 77573, 77578, 77581, 77583, 77584, 77586, 77587, 77590, 77591, 77598

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY

I thought that since school begins Monday for FBISD, we could learn the Spanish word for school--la escuela, pronounced lah s-quell-ah. Thank goodness, the kids will return soon to la escuela.

AND MORE
Headed to HEB at Austin Parkway and Highway 6. They had almost everything, except ice cream and stick butter. The produce was fully stocked...very nice. I haven't checked out gas stations but I suspect that is somewhat better as I didn't see long lines at the HEB gas station. Target on Highway 6 in Missouri City was open last night. But they had almost no produce, meat. They had no dairy and only a few sparse frozen goods.

I've been thinking a lot about this whole experience...I know, so are you. Are we meteorologists now superfluous? For years, we've been telling you about what to expect with a hurricane. Now you know first hand.

And yet, it would have been worse (beyond the storm surge area) had the storm been stronger...which it could have been. Winds could have been higher and we would have had much more structural damage. The storm surge could have been worse, although the size of this storm made the surge as bad as a Category 3 or 4. But another 5 feet of water over the Galveston sea wall and I doubt many structures would be left. Still, is it a moot point as the mold will require most of them to be destroyed any way? If the storm had come inland more to the west, there also would have been more damage. More people would have left after the storm. And with such a huge population leaving, it would be a huge strain on other cities. Texas and Louisiana would be tremendously burdened. As it is, with most structures still good enough to shelter people, there is a willingness to return, even without power.

Next time, will more people run from the wind (when the advice is still to hide from the wind when you are beyond the storm surge threat)? Don't believe that it can't happen again. In the 1940s, there were 11 storms which hit the upper Texas in a span of 10 years. I will admit only a couple where strong hurricanes.

Well, we need to focus on what we have right here and now, which is enough...to recover and to help each other recover.

Be safe everyone.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman