Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast/La Nina Winter Impact

The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially ends November 30th and currently Atlantic and Pacific are quiet.

Meanwhile a big winter storm is pushing into the western US and blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings have been issued for the Wasatch and Rocky Mountain ranges. Also, there are winter storm warnings for the Sierra Nevada. This storm system will make its way eastward over the first part of the holiday weekend, bringing some of the coldest temperatures so far this year to much of the country.

On Wednesday, look for winter travel troubles in the Rockies and Wasatch ranges as well as the Sierra Nevada. Also, there is a slight risk for severe storms for eastern Oklahoma, extreme southeastern Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Very cold for the northern Rockies and northern plains with highs in the single digits and teens. While it will be very warm across the south and southeast. The northeast will be chilly and windy with highs in the 30s and 40s.

On Thanksgiving Day, look for some snow for the western Great Lakes states and the Lakes into upstate New York. There will be some thunderstorms from Texas into the Ohio Valley.

Tuesday brought record tieing warm to Houston with a high of 85 (last time that warm this date was 1973). Houston will be warm, muggy and breezy on Wednesday through daytime Thursday. Cold front arrives Thursday evening. Look for some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Starting out in the 40s on Friday morning...should be a dry and pleasantly cool shopping day--don't forget your jacket. Saturday morning will be coolest morning this season with some locations hitting the freezing mark. Average first freeze for Bush Airport is usually Dec. 1. So, we will be a little early this year. Outlying areas should plan to protect delicate plants on Friday evening. Then, a slight warmup through the weekend--should be really nice. Some showers Monday as next cold front arrives, bringing another drop in temperatures for the coming Tuesday.

Let's do thank you or gracias, pronounced grah-SEE-ahs. Don't forget to say gracias for all your many blessings this Thanksgiving Day.

And talk about grateful. I am so glad we have now shipped the master of our DVD and CD to our disk creation partner. In about 2 weeks, we should have 1000 copies of our new Volume 3 DVD and Music CD for Volumes 1, 2 and 3. In the meantime, you can find my award winning education series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, Volumes 1 and 2, on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com. P.S. THEY MAKE TERRIFIC GIFTS!!!

La Nina and Information from Climate Prediction Center
Looks like we are having a moderate to strong La Nina episode this winter. La Nina is in essence the opposite of El Nino. Just like with El Nino, there can be extremes in weather conditions. This winter, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting above normal temperatures for the southern states and south central US with cooler than normal weather for the northwest. It also looks like it will be drier than normal over much of the south and that will aggravate drought conditions or at least cause persistence in drought.

I pulled the following regional impact discussion from the Climate Prediction Center's section on La Nina:

•Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
•Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
•Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
•Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
•Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
•Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
•Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
•Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
•Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
•Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.

November 17th Has Been Designated Smith-Magenis Syndrome Awareness Day
Smith-Magenis Syndrome is an underdiagnosed syndrome characterized by a micro-deletion on the 17th chromosome or an RAI1 gene mutation on the 17th chromosome. My daughter, Sarah, has this syndrome. And because we were able to get this diagnosed early, we were able to find out about a serious ureter condition which might have led to the destruction of her kidneys. Early diagnosis prevented this dangerous development and we are so grateful. Of course there is much, much more to know about this syndrome...not only physical concerns but behavioral and cognitive as well. If you know someone who is dealing with a child who has been undiagnosed and possibly given a broad spectrum label like PDD or autism or as a baby has been thought to have Down Syndrome, please have them check out the following web site:

November is National Adoption Month
Adoption is a loving choice and I can tell you first hand, its is the most worthwhile and joyful thing I have ever done. When I worked at FOX, I did a monthly feature on adoption working with DePelchin.org. What I learned is that many people want to adopt, but they fear the cost. What they don't realize is that for minorities and older children, there is often no cost and there are lots of financial incentives like paid college tuition for a Texas school. To learn more, go to DePelchin's web site:
Don't forget there is always a need for foster homes as well.

New Poll
My poll on selling your gold is closed. 40% said they had already sold their gold. 40% said they don't have any to sell. 20% said they are considering selling the gold they have. And 0% said they are definitely selling their gold. Thanks to all who participated.

My new poll is about holiday shopping. How do you do most of your shopping? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

Thanksgiving Reflection
Tomorrow, the 24th, would have been my Dad's 74th birthday. He died nine years ago, right before Sarah came into our life. I still think of my Dad almost every day. He taught me the old saying of "Life is Not Fair". This has been very helpful to me in times when well, things have just not been fair. I think if more people would think of this, they would stop walking around acting and feeling like victims and maybe concentrate more on their many blessings. This is not to say that they aren't suffering, but rather, that they are not wallowing in their suffering and choosing to concentrate on the positive.

And I am of course grateful for the other Dads in my life--my wonderful stepdad Gerry and father-in-law Dale...both whom I love dearly.

I am grateful for all of my family and friends, my faith (which I must never forget), and all of my countless blessings.

Wishing all of you a very happy, grateful, and safe Thanksgiving!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

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