Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Return of wet weather/Hurricane Forecasts/Drought Outlook

For a special drought and hurricane forecast discussion, see the AND MORE section.

A dip of cooler temperatures over the Rockies (where the jet stream is digging southward) and just east of there and into west Texas will be some storms on Thursday. Notice that on Friday the slight risk for severe storms area pushes a bit eastward and is confined to TX, OK, and KS. It will be pleasantly mild across the west with highs in the 60s and most of the northeast, east and southeast, and south will be in the 60s, 70s and even 80s.

The weather in Houston was just delightful today. It reminded me of Hawaii weather...that kind of wet breeze into air that is dry...causes a delightful and refreshing evaporative cooling effect on your body. Tomorrow, alas, the muggies make a return--as the moisture content of the air increases. It will be mild and breezy in the afternoon with a few showers possible. Look out for potentially severe storms on Friday and possibly Saturday and early Sunday. Later half of Sunday looks sunny and dry and early in the coming week will be delightful (again).

Let's do improvement or mejora, pronounced may-HOR-ah. I think the economy may be experiencing a slight mejora.

We have had quite a few sales in the last week or so through our retail distributors. Now, these aren't huge orders (except for the anticipated one I mentioned yesterday) but still there is a lot more activity. February was dreadfully slow. So I am encouraged. People want to do things to help their children achieve everything possible. They tell me their children love our award winning Volume 1 DVD of Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. You can order today from You can also order from,,,,,, and Volume 2 is almost ready for release and Volume 3 will follow soon thereafter!!! For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, got to

I put the Climate Prediction's Center drought outlook figure to the right. Some parts of Texas under extreme drought conditions are expected to have their drought worsen through June. This figure was posted in early April. I will keep checking for updates.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center also says that the La Nina we are in is weakening...indicating a return to neutral conditions. El Nino or La Nina designation is important for hurricane season because there are implications. During El Nino hurricane seasons, there tend to be fewer storms in the Atlantic basin. This is due to stronger wind shear (and thus more shear to tear storms apart). However, some of the stronger storms to hit Texas have occurred during these times in the years immediately following. In La Nina years, there tend to be more storms due to less shear (to tear hurricanes apart).

Dr. William Gray and his associates from Colorado State University (and mostly it's the associates by the way) are saying that they expect a fairly normal hurricane season. Their 2009 hurricane forecast released about a week ago reflects a decrease in the numbers put out in December 2008. They are saying there will be 12 tropical storms, 6 of those hurricanes and 2 of those major hurricanes. This is also the average for a typical season. They are forecasting a 54% chance of a major hurricane strike anywhere on the US coast (average chance is 52%), a 32% (31% is average) of same for East U.S. coast to Florida and a 31% chance (average is 30%) for Gulf from Florida to Brownsville.

The Weather Research Center (which runs the nation's only weather museum here in Houston) predicts the following chances of a tropical storm strike (note tropical storm includes hurricanes but also just tropical storms).
Louisiana to Alabama 70% (average is 59%)
Texas 40% (51%)
West coast of Florida 60% (71%)
East coast of Florida 30% (41%)
Georgia to North Carolina 50% (56%)
East US 30% (36%)

They also are predicting 7 named tropical storms, 4 of those to become hurricanes.

All I know is that I hope Houston is done for a very long time.

Have a terrific Thursday!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

No comments: