Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Model runs delayed

Sorry...I know some of you have been waiting...not much new to report. For some reason, the more important model runs are delayed...including GFDL and the fairly new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF). The tracking on the GFDL has been the best, except that I haven't found anything to show the performance of the HWRF. This model incorporates flight information and I think it is a work in progress.

One thing I will say is this looks like a big storm. The eye is well formed again. If you look at satellite imagery, you can see that there is some dry air...with a clearly distinct outer band. But remember, it just came out from over land. So, it just needs some time to get reorganized. Hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles from the center and tropical storm winds well beyond that.

The ridge that had been steering is developing the much discussed weakness. We shall see.

But I say starting thinking that it will hit here (Houston area). Is your home ready. What will you need to pick up outside. Are you staying or leaving. Remember that once any evacuation is ordered, and you are not in the evacuation zone, you should really try to stay put. Those people have to run from the water. If you are above 30 ft elevation...you should hide from the wind.

Now if everyone gets out and there's time. Then you can try to leave. Another thought is maybe wait until the storm passes and leave if conditions are unbearable. But remember that it may be difficult to get around debris. You may have to wait a couple days.

One of my biggest concerns are these wood fences we have everywhere, because those posts are going to become projectiles. Look around you home and figure out the most interior, fortified location. An interior bathroom is ideal.

People in the Sugar Land area are asking me how strong of winds could we get...with a healthy Category 3, 90 mph.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

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