Forecast through Weekend/Exotic Hurricane Names/Twilight Poll Results

WEATHER AND HURRICANES
Tropical Atlantic is quiet but there is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Tropical Pacific which has a 20% chance of developing (according to the National Hurricane Center).

On Monday, highs will reach the 90s across the southern plains, Rockies, southeast and eastern seaboard up to New York City. There were be 100s in the desert Southwest and 60s along the California coast and Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere expect 70s and 80s. There is a slight risk for severe storms in the central US and Ohio Valley.

Houston will be hot, humid with only the slightest chance for rain through Friday. Expect a few more scattered thunderstorms over the coming weekend.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do name or nombre, prounced NOHM-bray. What are some hurricane nombres from other parts of the world. See the AND MORE section.

Got my first look at the soon to be released Volume 3 of Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, my award winning Spanish language DVDs for children. It was the best one yet!!! I am working on a few more font graphics for my editor. So, I have been really busy with that. You can find Volumes 1 and 2 on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
So we didn't get a Bonnie out of Tropical Depression #2. I got to looking at the names for the rest of the season and then I started looking at the names for storms in other parts of the world. The National Hurricane Center has 10 lists of names for 10 regions of the world. These names are common to that area. Here are some examples of interesting ones:
From the Central Pacific:
Akoni
Ema
Hone
Iona
Keli
Lala
Moke
Nolo
Olana
Pena
Ulana
Wale
I don't know about you, but I've never met anyone with names like these. But you see, these are for the Central Pacific...so many of the names are Hawaiian.

How about these for the western North Pacific? These are names from Japan, Korea, the Phillipines, Cambodia, China, Vietnam and more
Jebi
Mangkhut
Utor
Trami
Kong-rey
Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip
Sepat
Fitow
Danas
Nari

And here's some from the Fiji region:
Ami
Beni
Cilla
Dovi
Eseta
Fili
Gina
Heta
Ivy
Judy
Kerry
Lola
Meena
Nancy
Olaf
Percy
Rae
Sheila
Tam
Urmil
Vaianu
Wati
Zita

Here's some from Papua New Guinea:
Epi
Guba
Ila
Kama
Matere
Rowe
Tako
Upia

Here's some from the northern Indian Ocean:
Onil
Agni
Hibaru
Pyarr
Baaz
Fanoos
Mala
Mukda

And some from the southwest Indian Ocean:
Anja
Bongani
Cleo
David
Enzani
Fami
Gelane
Hubert
Imani
Joel
Kanja
Lunda
Mohono
Nigel
Olympe
Pamela
Quentin
Rahim
Savana
Themba
Uyapo
Viviane
Walter
Xangy
Yamurai
Zanele

These aren't all by any means...but it is a nice sampling.

The poll on who you considered more attractive from the Twilight series, Jacob the Werewolf or Edward the Vampire, is closed. Only one answer was allowed. 83% said Jacob the Werewolf and 16% said Edward the Vampire. Guess we have a little rounding problem. I ordered a Team Jacob shirt for Megan for her birthday and it is still on back order. Thanks to all who participated.

My new poll is about summer...what is your favorite thing about it? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for answering.

And if you have a baby on the way and want a unique name, take a look at the lists above! Have a great week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Depression #2 Means Heavy Rain and Coastal Flooding

Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the Gulf and will probably become Tropical Storm Bonnie before making landfall in northern Mexico or south Texas. Biggest problem will be flooding rains (Houston could get 5 to 6 inches) on top of saturated ground and swollen waterways. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch which is in effect into Thursday evening. Also, there is coastal flooding already and a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for Galveston, Chambers and Brazoria counties and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Harris County.

Here is the official advisory:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT LEVELS
TO INCREASE ANOTHER 1/2 FOOT TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE. AFTER ADDING THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF AROUND 2 FEET
TO THIS...IT WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL TIDE BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 FEET ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES WHICH WILL CREATE COASTAL FLOOD PROBLEMS AT THE SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...WESTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...BLUE WATER HIGHWAY
AND SURFSIDE. WAVE RUN UP WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO EVEN HIGHER LEVELS. THE LOWEST
LYING BAYSIDE LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE WATER LEVELS PUSH ABOVE BULKHEADS
AND INTO YARDS AND ROADS. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR AROUND
HIGH TIDE AT EACH LOCATION. IN ADDITION TO HIGH WATER LEVELS...HIGH SURF WILL
CREATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS SO SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NOTE...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED
WATER LEVEL
ROLLOVER PASS...
WED 10:50 PM 1.9 FEET
THU 8:59 AM 3.4 FEET

EAGLE POINT...
WED 10:25 PM 2.0 FEET
THU 10:41 AM 3.5 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
WED 7:38 PM 1.5 FEET
THU 4:50 AM 3.5 FEET

GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
WED 6:31 PM 2.1 FEET
THU 3:14 AM 4.4 FEET

FREEPORT USCG...
WED 6:12 PM 2.1 FEET
THU 3:53 AM 4.1 FEET
THU 6:58 PM 2.1 FEET

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

Rio Grande Valley concerns include a very swollen Rio Grande River.

Pay attention to the weather and remember not to drive through flooded areas.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Systems Mean Heavy Rain

Just a quick update this evening to tell you that the Texas and Louisiana coasts could get a 1-2 punch...first the tropical wave that will bring some rain (heavy at times) on Wednesday into Thursday morning and then the disturbance moving from the Yucatan into the Gulf (bringing rain as early as Thursday and potentially continuing into the weekend). We've had a lot of rain...so pay attention to what is happening.

Also, there is a coastal flood watch for Galveston and Chambers counties due to the tropical wave just east of the Houston area. Higher than normal tides are expected.

Have a safe Wednesday everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Here We Go Again in Tropics?/Twilight Cutie Award - Edward or Jacob

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Don't look now but there are 2 systems we are watching on the Atlantic side (note: the Pacific is quiet). Most immediately, there is a non-tropical low south of Louisiana that the National Hurricane Center says will move north or northwest over the next day or so. Models show a northwest movement and rain returning to the Houston area by Tuesday. Fortunately, there is only a 10% chance of development. So, it looks like this one most likely will be a rainmaker.

In the western Caribbean, it's almost deja vu...another system getting it's act together and this one has a 30% chance of development of becoming an organized tropical system within 48 hours. Models show a track across the Yucatan into northern Mexico and strengthening to a hurricane. over the next 5 days. Now, remember that with Alex at this point, the models were all over the place with impact location. So, be prepared for anything!!!

Across the nation on Monday...many areas with scattered thunderstorms...see figure at right. Storms are to the right of the lines with errors. These areas include the plains into the Great Lakes and the southeast. Desert Southwest will be hot with highs in the 100s. Look for 90s in the south and eastern seaboard (New York City in the high 90s--yikes!!!)...also Reno will be in the 90s. Southeast will have highs in the 80s. 60s and 70s for the west coast of California and Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

Houston will be hot and humid Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s. Some scattered thunderstorms as early as Tuesday with more widespread rain the rest of the week--keep in mind keeping a close eye on tropical developments in the Gulf.
SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do fireworks or fuegos artificiales, pronounced FWAY-gohs are-tee-fee-see-AWL-lehs. Hope you got to enjoy some fuegos artificiales on the 4th!

Going on vacation soon! Take an entertaining and educational DVD with you--my award winning Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco Volume 1 and/or 2. By the way, we just finished the back end graphics and the 1st draft of the front end for Volume 3 (soon to be released). You can find them on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Polls (Results and New Poll)
My poll on when you plan to watch the new Twilight Movie is closed.
0% said they would watch it at the first Midnight showing (which was early Wednesday the 30th). 14% said they would see it on Wednesday 6/30. 14% said they would see it during the July 4th weekend. 14% said they would see it after the July 4th weekend. 28% said they would see it when it comes to video. 28% said they would never see it. Thanks to all who voted. By the way, my buddy Marilyn pointed it that I missed a time on this poll--apparently there was at least one premiere on the 29th--a 9:30 pm showing at the Edward's Theater. Sorry I missed that one folks!

July 2nd was Megan's 22nd birthday. Her Dad had given her an early birthday card (about a week) ago which posed the question: For your birthday, what would you choose--A Smokin' Hot Werewolf or Super Cool Vampire? She has switched recently from Team Edward to Team Jacob--yes there is a lot of Team Jacob and Team Edward hoopla--so, my new poll is about just that. Whom do you find more attractive--Edward the Vampire or Jacob the Werewolf. Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for voting. And Happy Birthday Megan dear!!!

ALERT***ALERT***MOM SPELLING CORRECTION!!!
In my last blog post, I talked about the "dieing" storm Alex. Well, Mom contacted me right away to say that I should have spelled that dying. Whoops!!! I knew better really Mom!!! Did I ever tell you all that my Mom coached a student to the National Spelling Bee twice? Yep!!! We have a very educated reviewer for this blog. Thanks Mom!!!

SPECIAL 4TH OF JULY MESSAGE
My buddies, Lew and Meresa Fincher sent out a special greeting in case we forget what today is all about! 234 years ago today our original 13 colonies declared their independence from Great Britain.

Speaking of that...I remember learning in Middle School that the Declaration of Independence was signed over a period of about one month. Mr. Werner, a history buff to the extreme, was my teacher. He told us that there were actually some signatures on July 2nd, some on July 4th and more in August. Not everyone who signed could be in the same place at the same time. It took some time to get the document in front of everyone.

Great Movie Deal!!!
Gordy and Megan went to see the new Twilight Eclipse movie yesterday morning around 11:30 am. Gordy was thrilled to learn that at AMC theaters, all movies before noon on Saturdays cost only $5. What a deal (at least nowadays)!!! So check it out!!! BTW, he thought the 3rd installment was pretty good.

Remember God and Our Country Are Connected
At church this morning, we sang some patriotic songs and I was happy to notice that they all talked about God and our country. Let us never forget we are One Nation Under God!!!

Have a safe and fun Fourth everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Heavy Rain in Houston Forecast/Twilight Midnight Madness

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex made landfall about 105 miles south of Brownsville this evening and had 105 mph winds at landfall (a Category 2 hurricane). Very heavy rain has fallen in the valley (8 inches as of 8 pm this evening in Cameron County--where I grew up). So far, there have been 3 tornadoes in the valley, one in Refugio, and one in Matagorda. South Texas is under a tornado watch until 4 am. Ongoing concern is flash flooding and numerous counties in Texas are under a flash flood watch (see figure at right). This includes the hill country and counties along the Rio Grande. With weak steering environment, we will have to watch the dieing storm for copious rains that lead to deadly flash flooding. Almost all of the models track the storm west and then northwest and north into just west of the Texas Hill Country.

Houston area, be on the lookout for heavy rain with the heaviest potentially on Friday. Also, there has been some coastal flooding and a coastal flood warning remains in effect.

Here is the advisory from the National Weather Service:
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY...

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.8 TO 2.6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BAY
AND 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE BEACHES. THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE
GOING INTO LOW TIDE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN
ABOUT AS THEY ARE OR SLIGHTLY DROP...THEN GO BACK UP TOWARD HIGH TIDE AROUND
815 AM. THERE IS ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING TAKING PLACE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87
ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA ARE CLOSED. WATER 18 INCHES DEEP IS BEING OBSERVED COVERING THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124. OTHER COMMUNITIES ON THE WEST END
OF GALVESTON ISLAND ARE REPORTING WATER OVER BULKHEADS AND SOME WATER IN YARDS.
LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT CAUSING WAVE RUN-UP ISSUES
ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES.

THE THREAT OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION
OF THE LARGE BATTERING WAVES AND EXTENSIVE BEACH FLOODING. SWIMMERS
SHOULD AVOID THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

THESE HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY RECEDE.

So there have been some flooded roadways in the usual trouble spots.

Some models hint at development that moves up the eastern seaboard middle of the coming week...stay tuned.

On Thursday, there is a risk for severe storms in Montana and North Dakota.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do rain or lluvia, pronounced you-VEE-ah. The lluvia could get very heavy, even in Houston.

Hers's something to do on a rainy day, have your child be entertained and educated by watching Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. I just saw them on the shelf of Barnes and Noble in Sugar Land today. Or, order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Megan and I went to a midnight showing of Twilight (early today). It was amazing how many people were there including mothers with several youngish children (like 9 or 10). The atmosphere was supercharged and there were lots of gals sporting Team Jacob or Team Edward tops. I thought the movie was great and very close to the book with some minimal treatments as necessary so that the film be around 2 hours. Jacob was smoking hot as noted by the screams from the audience every time he made an appearance. I asked one of the theater employees when she would be getting off work and she said 7 am. She added that there would be a 3 am showing and then another showing at 7 am. I would have liked to have seen how many people came for the 7 am. I can tell you that we got into the theater at 11 pm and most of the seats were taken. And when we came out, there were people waiting to see the show at 3 am.

I also noticed at a couple places with Twilight stuff (including Barnes & Noble today), that is there is more Edward than Jacob stuff. That could be because all of the Jacob stuff is getting bought up or the suppliers gave the retail outlets more Edward stuff to sell. What do you think? By the way, I'll have the results of the Twilight poll on my next post.

Have a good Thursday everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Alex - Better News for Houston Area

Houston area breathing a little easier this Tuesday morning with latest round of models indicating northern Mexico/south Texas landfall very early Thursday much more likely. Looks like the storm will be a Category 2 at landfall. If the storm does manage to jog a big further to north and make landfall around Port Mansfield...surge will be much higher toward Corpus and impact will be much improved for lower Rio Grande Valley. Still too soon to tell for sure with error plus/minus about 100 miles at this point.

Houston area impacts...2 to 4 foot storm surge...rain bands.

The storm is large...so all of Texas coast getting some impact.

For lower Texas coast...up to 8 foot storm surge...be ready for it by Wednesday afternoon. Lots of rain and winds could be 95 to 100 at landfall.

Models have come back into agreement this afternoon and the storm is no moving toward northwest (instead of North-northwest)...so turning has begun.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Alex Update

Technical trouble updating my figures...sorry about that.

I've been watching the models and of course the storm. Very little steering this storm. Models have been all over the place. My feeling is that the storm will move in around Corpus and head north-northwest bringing rain to south and southeast Texas. However, with the last round of model runs...I am seeing at least one favored model supporting a close to valley hit. The storm is having to deal with some wind shear and the fact that it is not moving much is not optimal for development, due to upwelling of cooler water.

Remember that we still have large errors 2 to 3 days out. So, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

At a minimum, get your supplies together and be thinking about potential flooding.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman