Watching Tropics after Hurricane Ike and Pondering

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

First of all let me tell you that the area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean is slightly more active. Right now, there is enough shear to keep it from developing but in a couple days, that will not be the case as it moves generally westward. Early model runs show a variety of paths but it is too soon to guess what the ultimate destination will be.

46% of the Centerpoint customers are still without power. This is a huge concern as our nice break from the humidity is almost gone. It will be warm and muggy especially starting Saturday and continuing through the upcoming week. If you know someone without power, take them in! Highs will reach 90 in some places as early as Sunday. Rain chances are slim. And now it doesn't look like a cold front will reach us at the end of the coming week. So warm and muggy will be the story for a while.

Fort Bend schools are set to open on Monday, even with about half of the area still without power. To the right you will see the outage map I have been showing, but I am also putting up the figure which shows outage percentage by zip code map. Of course it is quite tiny. So here is the link, so you can make it big enough to read. I know HISD has had to postpone plans to reopen their schools. Less than half of the schools have power so far.

http://www.centerpointenergy.com/staticfiles/ike/outages.html

And if you want to see the projected timeline for returning to almost full power, see the following list (which is also on the web site).

CenterPoint Energy announced today that based on damage assessment data obtained over the last few days, the company projects the following timeline, indicating approximately 80 percent restoration per region:
The following zip codes are estimated to have substantial power restoration by the end of day on Friday, September 19:
77065, 77094, 77095, 77354, 77355, 77356, 77362, 77375, 77377, 77382, 77384, 77418, 77420, 77423, 77429, 77430, 77433, 77434, 77435, 77441, 77444, 77445, 77447, 77449, 77450, 77461, 77468, 77469, 77471, 77474, 77479, 77482, 77484, 77486, 77488, 77493, 77494
The following zip codes are estimated to have substantial power restoration by the end of day on Monday, September 22:
77024, 77031, 77032, 77039, 77041, 77042, 77043, 77050, 77055, 77072, 77077, 77079, 77080, 77082, 77083, 77084, 77092, 77099, 77336, 77338, 77339, 77346, 77357, 77365, 77373, 77386, 77396, 77459, 77477, 77478, 77479, 77511, 77515, 77534, 77577, 77583
The following zip codes have sustained extensive damage, and will therefore have a restoration timeline that extends beyond Monday, September 22:
77002, 77003, 77004, 77005, 77006, 77007, 77008, 77009, 77010, 77011, 77012, 77013, 77014, 77015, 77016, 77017, 77018, 77019, 77020, 77021, 77022, 77023, 77025, 77026, 77027, 77028, 77029, 77030, 77033, 77034, 77035, 77036, 77037, 77038, 77040, 77044, 77045, 77046, 77047, 77048, 77049, 77051, 77053, 77054, 77056, 77057, 77058, 77059, 77060, 77061, 77062, 77063, 77064, 77066, 77067, 77068, 77069, 77070, 77071, 77073, 77074, 77075, 77076, 77078, 77081, 77085, 77086, 77087, 77088, 77089, 77090, 77091, 77093, 77096, 77098, 77379, 77380, 77386, 77388, 77389, 77401, 77422, 77459, 77489, 77502, 77503, 77504, 77505, 77506, 77507, 77510, 77515, 77517, 77518, 77520, 77521, 77530, 77531, 77532, 77534, 77535, 77536, 77539, 77541, 77545, 77546, 77547, 77550, 77551, 77554, 77562, 77563, 77565, 77566, 77568, 77571, 77573, 77578, 77581, 77583, 77584, 77586, 77587, 77590, 77591, 77598

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY

I thought that since school begins Monday for FBISD, we could learn the Spanish word for school--la escuela, pronounced lah s-quell-ah. Thank goodness, the kids will return soon to la escuela.

AND MORE
Headed to HEB at Austin Parkway and Highway 6. They had almost everything, except ice cream and stick butter. The produce was fully stocked...very nice. I haven't checked out gas stations but I suspect that is somewhat better as I didn't see long lines at the HEB gas station. Target on Highway 6 in Missouri City was open last night. But they had almost no produce, meat. They had no dairy and only a few sparse frozen goods.

I've been thinking a lot about this whole experience...I know, so are you. Are we meteorologists now superfluous? For years, we've been telling you about what to expect with a hurricane. Now you know first hand.

And yet, it would have been worse (beyond the storm surge area) had the storm been stronger...which it could have been. Winds could have been higher and we would have had much more structural damage. The storm surge could have been worse, although the size of this storm made the surge as bad as a Category 3 or 4. But another 5 feet of water over the Galveston sea wall and I doubt many structures would be left. Still, is it a moot point as the mold will require most of them to be destroyed any way? If the storm had come inland more to the west, there also would have been more damage. More people would have left after the storm. And with such a huge population leaving, it would be a huge strain on other cities. Texas and Louisiana would be tremendously burdened. As it is, with most structures still good enough to shelter people, there is a willingness to return, even without power.

Next time, will more people run from the wind (when the advice is still to hide from the wind when you are beyond the storm surge threat)? Don't believe that it can't happen again. In the 1940s, there were 11 storms which hit the upper Texas in a span of 10 years. I will admit only a couple where strong hurricanes.

Well, we need to focus on what we have right here and now, which is enough...to recover and to help each other recover.

Be safe everyone.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman