Hurricane Ike Update per NWS Hurricane Local Statement

Hello all -
This is only a small piece of the Hurricane Local Statement issued by the National Weather Service Houston. Please also note that 8 to 12 foot tides are expecting along Galveston Bay and the Chambers/Galveston County coasts. The next Hurricane Local Statement will be issued at 11 pm. Use this link to get to the tropical page which has the Hurricane Local Statement. Also, just so you know, more evacuations may be ordered soon.

HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST WELL INADVANCE OF THE USUAL 36 HOUR LEAD TIME. THIS HAS BEEN DONE TO GIVEPERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MORE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY WITHWINDS PEAKING NEAR 130 MPH CLOSE TO THE EYE OF THE STORM. THESTORM WILL LIKELY BE A VERY LARGE STORM WITH A WIND FIELD OFSUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS THAT COULD BLANKET A LARGE SWATH OFTHE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF AND AT LANDFALL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TOMAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Watch is Issued for Ike

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERONWESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. This is all of us along the upper Texas Coast!

I am very uncomfortable with the latest model runs. That combined with the fact that Ike is a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds now extend outward 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward 205 miles.

Latest GFDL run places the landfall very close to us.

As an aside...there are some interesting parallels to Rita. It was a Wed. evening that the GFDL was showing us in the line of fire. Remember how the storm hit far enough to the east that only eastern portions of southeast Texas were slammed hard late Friday/early Saturday?

Unfortunately, looking at the steering pattern, it just doesn't quite look strong enough to come up with that kind of push to the east. I hope I'm wrong. The Hurricane Center has adjusted landfall slightly to the north (just north of Matagorda). Only 25 miles shift eastward (the local NWS states) and this is going to be a worst case impact on the Houston/Galveston area.

Evacuation orders have been issued. Please check http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/ (the Houston National Weather Service) for an updated hurricane local statement. This will have more specific information for your area.

What you should do now...
Finish stocking supplies of non-perishable foods...you need 14 gallons of water per person...2 weeks prescriptions...full gas tank...extra cash (as banks will be possibly be closed a while). Pick up loose objects in your yard and bring them inside. Everyone should have plain bleach on hand to make their water supply potable in an emergency. Start making extra ice and putting it in coolers (thanks Peyton Casgarelli) to keep milk and cold cuts chilled. Crank freezer as cold as it will go...if you leave it closed for a day, most foods will not spoil. Fill containers with water and freeze for large blocks of ice. Fill large containers with extra water. Make pictures of valuables. If you have a digital camera...upload and possibly order a copy to send to relatives out of harm's way as a record for insurance. You can also do a video tape (keep the tape in a dry place!). Make important documents water proof by putting them in sealed containers. Don't forget extra formula and special diet items and diapers for babies, special needs and elderly.

For those of you leaving, take water, food, changes of clothes, medicine.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Don't forget to

Hurricane Ike Evacuation Order for Upper Texas Coast

These just came out....
BRAZORIA COUNTY:A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIALNEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. AVOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTSIN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROMBRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TOCOMPLETION.GALVESTON COUNTY:A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVARPENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICABEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKIISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAYALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECTTO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASEREMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PMTHURSDAY NIGHT.JACKSON COUNTY:A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.MATAGORDA COUNTY:A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE ANDWORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THECOMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRESPALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED INTHE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE APET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT ASEPARATE FACILITY.IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TOHELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT 979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318 .

Hurricane Ike Now a Category 2

Ike's winds are up to 100 mph...the center is about 660 miles east-southeast of Galveston. It is a big storm with hurricane force winds (75 mph or higher) extending out 80 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds (39 mph or higher) extending out 200 miles from the center.

Remember that the weather associated with hurricanes arrives in advance of the center. So, even though the center is forecast to move ashore (possibly near Matagorda) with error being plus or minus about 200 miles at this point (so upper Texas coast folks, we still need to be watching and preparing), the first bands of weather and high surf will arrive as early as late Thursday.

Next model runs will be available between 3 and 4. I'll try to update then.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Some run to run consistency on Hurricane Ike

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

Some run to run consistency now from the models...for about 3 runs, not much change. So there is evidence here that things are settling down...that the models are getting a better handle on what Ike will do. Most still showing that Ike will hit between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi early on Saturday.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175MILES...280 KM. So the hurricane force winds have contracted a bit, but I expect that range to increase later today. Notice that the tropical storm force winds are quite a ways out from the center. This is a big storm and it will probably get bigger over the Gulf. It is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall.

So, suppose that it hits Matagorda. What can we expect in the Houston area if that happens...high surf...some coastal flooding especially west end Galveston Island, Bolivar Peninsula, points along Galveston Bay. For more on flooding, be sure to check the Houston NWS site...look at the Local Storm Report. See my link to the right. We can expect some storm squalls with high wind...for areas southwest of Houston (Brazoria, Wharton, Galveston)...some winds up to hurricane force are possibly. Ft. Bend County would be give or take...maybe 60...certainly still warrants picking up objects in your yard...maybe nail those loose fenceposts. We could have some power outages...1 to 2 days are possible especially southwest of Houston.

Don't forget that storm bands can produce tornadoes. Be sure to check out that reinforced interior location in your home...interior bathrooms are ideal.

Don't forget that we could have heavy rain with flooding. The safest place (unless you are told to leave) will be in your home. This does not include coastal residents who may still be advised to leave. Follow all evacuation orders.

All that being said...a Matagorda landfall would still be much better than a west Galveston Island landfall. Remember, THAT THIS IS STILL NOT CERTAIN and you should be vigilant about monitoring reports and you should still prepare as if the hurricane is coming here.

More to come on this.

SPANISH
Since flooding may be the worst of what we get from Ike, I thought the word for the day should be flooding...inundaciones...pronounced n-oon-dah-see-own-s.

In general, it is asserted that the earlier the language is introduced, the more rapidly children stand to reap the benefits.

This comes from Met, M. (1991). Elementary school foreign languages: What research can and can not tell us. In E.S. Silber (Ed.), Critical issues in foreign language instruction (pp. 63-79). New York: Garland Publishing, Inc.

So get your little ones started early with a product that is just for them...entertaining and educational. Order my Dr. Toy Top 10 Education Product award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE
My buddy Lew Fincher is walking encylopedia of information about hurricanes. He has appeared locally and nationally to share his expertise. If you company needs advice on how to prepare and what is happening, check out his web site:
http://www.hurricaneconsulting.net/hci_main.html

Be safe everyone. I'll have another update later.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

7 am Update on Hurricane Ike

Most recent model runs clustering between Corpus Christi and Matagorda. Winds now up to 85 mph...moving northwest now. Looking healthier on satellite imagery.

Will have an update later.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman