Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Uniqueness of Hurricane Ike

Where is the center dad gummit...well, Hurricane Recon. says that the "eye" doesn't have that strong of winds and the strongest winds are 75 to 85 miles from the center. What in the world?

So, for the worst wind, if this organization remains unchanged for 24 hours, we should look up and down the coast from landfall (about 75 to 85 miles each way) for the worst winds. This storm really is different!!!

By the way, speaking of the large high wind field, tropical storm force winds now extend outward 275 miles from the center.

Hurricane Center really didn't change the track much...only a slight shift to the west from points after landfall.

Be safe everyone.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Ike - New Model Runs Slightly More to the Right

There has been a slight shift with the most recent runs...now the average position is right over Galveston. Will see what the Hurricane Center thinks of that.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

New Hurricane Local Statement for Hurricane Ike

Here are just a few of the main points of interest, but you can see the full content at the following link.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXHLSHGX

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONSNOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORYHOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGECONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREADAND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADSWILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIREFLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAYEXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS INMULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BEWORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTYDAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OFBLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TOREPAIR.HIGH TIDE TIMES:MORGANS POINT... FRI 2:52 PM. SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... FRI 10:36 AM. SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT... FRI 8:25 AM. SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR... FRI 4:45 AM. FRI 1:52 PM. SAT 4:52 AM. SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL... FRI 4:31 AM. FRI 1:38 PM. SAT 4:38 AM. SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... FRI 3:25 AM. FRI 12:32 PM. SAT 3:32 AM. SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH... FRI 7:09 AM. FRI 4:16 PM. SAT 7:16 AM. SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS... FRI 4:22 AM. FRI 1:29 PM. SAT 4:29 AM. SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT... FRI 3:47 AM. FRI 12:54 PM. SAT 3:54 AM. SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR... FRI 10:15 AM. SAT 2:01 PM.

Also, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP CODE 77507 IN THE PASADENA AREA. This is not the only zip code...click on the link (above) to see the full report.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Don't Turn Off Gas At the Meter -- Hurricane Ike

This applies to all hurricanes and the information was provided by Centerpoint Energy.


CenterPoint Energy strongly advises you to leave natural gas service connected during a storm. Doing so will maintain proper pressure in the gas piping in the house to prevent water from entering the lines if flooding occurs.
While we don't recommend disconnecting your gas service at the meter, you may turn off the gas at each appliance. To restore gas flow to each appliance, you must relight the pilot flame by following the instructions on the appliance. If you can't find the instructions, call a qualified plumber or appliance technician.
Although gas lines are buried underground and are not usually affected by strong winds, high water or other severe weather, our crews are prepared to respond quickly to any emergency.

Hurricane Wind Map for Hurricane Ike

The wind map figure on the right is courtesy of the Weather Research Center forecast office. For more weather information, go to:
http://www.wxresearch.org/

Please note the 64 kt winds are hurricane force winds (75 mph). Notice the large area including Harris County with projected hurricane force winds. Hurricane force winds will begin moving into the area starting Thursday afternoon.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

How to Make Water Potable

This is handy info...make sure you use PLAIN bleach!!! Got this from U.S. EPA web site.

Emergency Disinfection of Drinking Water
USE ONLY WATER THAT HAS BEEN PROPERLY DISINFECTED FOR DRINKING, COOKING, MAKING ANY PREPARED DRINK, OR FOR BRUSHING TEETH
Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.
(U.S. federal agencies and the Red Cross recommend these same four steps to disinfect drinking water in an emergency. Please, read the text below for important details about disinfection.
More information about disinfection
Choose a disinfection method
Summary and illustration of key points
More information about disinfection
In times of crisis, follow advice from local officials. Local health departments or public water systems may urge consumers to use more caution or to follow additional measures than the information provided here.
Look for other sources of potable water in and around your home. When your home water supply is interrupted by natural or other forms of disaster, you can obtain limited amounts of water by draining your hot water tank or melting ice cubes. In most cases, well water is the preferred source of drinking water. If it is not available and river or lake water must be used, avoid sources containing floating material and water with a dark color or an odor. Generally, flowing water is better quality than stagnant water.
Examine the physical condition of the water. When emergency disinfection is necessary, disinfectants are less effective in cloudy, murky or colored water. Filter murky or colored water through clean cloths or allow it to settle. It is better to both settle and filter. After filtering until it is clear, or allowing all dirt and other particles to settle, draw off the clean and clear water for disinfection. Water prepared for disinfection should be stored only in clean, tightly covered, containers, not subject to corrosion.
Choose a disinfection method.
Boiling and chemical treatment are two general methods used to effectively disinfect small quantities of filtered and settled water.
Boiling
Boiling is the surest method to make water safe to drink and kill disease-causing microorganisms like Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium, which are frequently found in rivers and lakes. These disease-causing organisms are less likely to occur in well water (as long as it has not been affected by flood waters). If not treated properly and neutralized, Giardia may cause diarrhea, fatigue, and cramps after ingestion. Cryptosporidium is highly resistant to disinfection. It may cause diarrhea, nausea and/or stomach cramps. People with severely weakened immune systems are likely to have more severe and more persistent symptoms than healthy individuals. Boil filtered and settled water vigorously for one minute (at altitudes above one mile, boil for three minutes). To improve the flat taste of boiled water, aerate it by pouring it back and forth from one container to another and allow it to stand for a few hours, or add a pinch of salt for each quart or liter of water boiled.
If boiling is not possible, chemical disinfection of filtered and settled water collected from a well, spring, river, or other surface water body will still provide some health benefits and is better than no treatment at all.
Chemical Treatment
When boiling is not practical, certain chemicals will kill most harmful or disease-causing organisms. For chemical disinfection to be effective, the water must be filtered and settled first.Chlorine and iodine are the two chemicals commonly used to treat water. They are somewhat effective in protecting against exposure toGiardia, but may not be effective in controlling more resistant organisms like Cryptosporidium. Chlorine is generally more effective than iodine in controlling Giardia, and both disinfectants work much better in warm water.
You can use a non-scented, household chlorine bleach that contains a chlorine compound to disinfect water. Do not use non-chlorine bleach to disinfect water. Typically, household chlorine bleaches will be 5.25% available chlorine. Follow the procedure written on the label. When the necessary procedure is not given, find the percentage of available chlorine on the label and use the information in the following table as a guide. (Remember, 1/8 teaspoon and 8 drops are about the same quantity.)
Available Chlorine
Drops per Quart/Gallon of Clear Water
Drops per Liter of Clear Water
1%
10 per Quart - 40 per Gallon
10 per Liter
4-6%
2 per Quart - 8 per Gallon (1/8 teaspoon)
2 per Liter
7-10%
1 per Quart - 4 per Gallon
1 per Liter
(If the strength of the bleach is unknown, add ten drops per quart or liter of filtered and settled water. Double the amount of chlorine for cloudy, murky or colored water or water that is extremely cold.)
Mix the treated water thoroughly and allow it to stand, preferably covered, for 30 minutes. The water should have a slight chlorine odor. If not, repeat the dosage and allow the water to stand for an additional 15 minutes. If the treated water has too strong a chlorine taste, allow the water to stand exposed to the air for a few hours or pour it from one clean container to another several times.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Mostly bad news with Hurricane Ike

The only good things I can say are that the winds are still 100 mph and the central pressure rose slightly. This does not mean that there won't be strengthening before landfall (of the center) very late Friday night or very early Saturday morning. Error for landfall location is now down to plus or minus 80 miles.

I suspect that the storm is trying to develop a bigger eye wall...but will there be enough time? Regardless, this storm is large--so much so that a huge area will be impacted by hurricane force winds and a bigger storm surge than what you would expect with a 100 mph hurricane.

Hurricane force winds now extend out 115 mph and tropical storm force winds extend out 275 miles. The actual center is 400 miles ESE of Galveston.

Houston Hobby will stop flights beginning 9 am Friday.

People in all of Harris County in mobile homes and high rises should consider evacuating!

To see all of the discussion for southeast Texas (the Hurricane Local Statement), go to http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXHLSHGX.

More to come!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Ike - A New Evacuation Order

HARRIS COUNTY:A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS EFFECTIVE BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY FORTHE FOLLOWING ZIP ZONES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...AND 77598.FOR HARRIS COUNTY GOVERNMENT WORKERS...ESSENTIAL WORKERS ONLYREPORT ON FRIDAY.

Winds still at 100 mph but still expecting strengthening...do not discount this storm. It is large.

Models converging on landfall between Matagorda Bay and western Galveston Island...a worst case scenario.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Ike Getting Larger

This is just a short update and I will have more once the next model runs are out after 9 am central.

A Hurricane Wind Watch has been issued for several counties. Here is the official statement from the Houston NWS

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-558 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008...HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

So, this means within 36 hours, there could be hurricane force winds (75 mph or stronger) in these counties.

Hurricane force winds extend out 115 from the center. Tropical storm force winds (39 mph or higher) extend out 255 miles from the center. The center is 525 southeast of Galveston. Remember that some weather will begin arriving tonight.

The storm is now moving WNW...official forecast is still a landfall near Freeport...a near worst case scenario for the upper Texas Coast.

This storm is very strange because the central pressure at 944 mb would suggest much higher winds than 100 mph. I think this storm is still getting its act together and I wouldn't be surprised to see the winds increase 10 to 20 mph today.

More to come.

Be safe everyone.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Ike Central Pressure Dropping

Okay everyone--I know I am very late, but I have a good reason and I'll explain later or if you know me, call and I'll fill you in.

Anyway, Aaron, I am not retyping the evacuation info. at the end of this blog to get rid of the caps...I took this evacuation info. from the Houston NWS Hurricane Local Statement. Sorry the format is not better. Bottom line is that if you are at any elevation of 30 feet or lower, you need to see if your location is on this list. Here is the direct link to the entire Hurricane Local Statement as there is a log of information! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXHLSHGX

The storm is getting so big...hurricane force winds out 115 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 130 miles from the center. Although the winds are holding at 100 mph, I think part of the reason is that the eye is still getting itself figured out and also, some of the storm was over some relatively cooler water. In the next 24 hours, the storm will get over warmer water with no big shear and strengthening is possible if not likely.

The forecast tracks are pointing to a near worst case landfall for the Houston/Galveston area. We are still 2 days out from the center striking but because the storm is so large, the effects will be felt starting Thursday night. Again there is still a large margin of error.

With this worst case approach, we could have 130 mph winds along the coast, and 100 mph winds along the 59 corridor west of Houston and the Highway 90 corridor east of Houston. This is a very serious possibility. Please remember that we must allow our evacuation folks to get out. So if you are not in an evacuation zone, unless you have a compelling reason, you need to hide from the wind.

One of the biggest problems will be flying trees/limbs and fence posts. Reinforce your fence posts with nails. But do not at this point cut tree limbs as they may not get picked up in time. Identify the central most reinforced part of your home (on the first floor unless their is catastrophic flooding) and be prepared to go there.

Bring in all loose objects.

Get your 14 gallons of water stocked up. Fill up your gas tank whether you are staying or going. You might try to leave after the storm hits. Get cash. Make sure you have a 2 week supply of prescriptions. Remember that businesses will close too and if power is out for a long time and/or there is a lot of damage, it could be quite a while before you can access these kinds of services/products. Do not turn off gas appliances. The gas company will take care of turning off gas, if needed, at an upstream location.

I will have more tips about what to do as the storm gets closer in my next few blogs.

Be safe everyone.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:CHAMBERS COUNTY:RESIDENTS OF OAK ISLAND AND SMITH POINT FISHING COMMUNITIES AREBEING ASKED TO LEAVE AS ROADWAYS WILL BE SUBMERGED. RESIDENTS OFCEDAR POINT AND WALKER SUBDIVISIONS IN BEACH CITY AND THOSELIVING SOUTH OF FM 1985 ARE ALSO BEING ASKED TO LEAVE.BRAZORIA COUNTY:THE COUNTY JUDGE HAS RECOMMENDED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOSTOF BRAZORIA COUNTY BEGINNING AT 8 AM THURSDAY. RESIDENTS ACROSSTHE COUNTY SHOULD CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL COUNTY OR CITY EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. ASPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATIONFROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONSTO COMPLETION BY 10 AM THURSDAY.GALVESTON COUNTY:A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN AT 7 AM THURSDAY FOR WESTGALVESTON ISLAND...JAMAICA BEACH...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...OMEGABAY...SAN LEON... BACLIFF...AND FREDDIESVILLE. VOLUNTARYEVACUATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR LOW-LYING AREAS INDICKINSON...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE SHORES...AND LA MARQUE. CITIZENSSHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS SUBJECT TOFLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASEREMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PMTHURSDAY NIGHT.SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSEDON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTAFE...CLEAR CREEK AND FRIENDSWOOD. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE CLOSEDSTARTING MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GALVESTON...ANDDICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LAMARQUE...AND TEXAS CITY.THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY WILL CEASE WATER SERVICE TOTHE PENINSULA AT 5 PM ON THURSDAY.UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON WILLBEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES AT 8 AMTHURSDAY.JACKSON COUNTY:A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS UNDERWAY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.MATAGORDA COUNTY:A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE ANDWORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THECOMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRESPALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED INTHE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.THESE EVACUATIONS MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM THURSDAY.MATAGORDA COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING A VOLUNTARYEVACUATION OF RESIDENTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35 AND IN BAY CITY ANDVAN VLECK FOR THOSE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MANUFACTUREDHOMES THAT ARE NOT PROPERLY TIED DOWN. IT IS RECOMMENDED YOUEVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO ASHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A SEPARATE FACILITY.BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TOHELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT 979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318