Gustav - Worries Now and Later

Gustav will make landfall over southeastern Louisiana this morning. The most immediate concern is the storm surge (10 to 14 feet) and that is happening now and the hurricane force winds. The following is some of the most immediate important information. My blog continues after the information in caps.

AT 530 AM...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TIDE STATION...NORTHEAST BAY GARDENE NEAR POINT A LA HACHE...HAD RISEN NEARLY 9 FEETSINCE LAST EVENING. HURRICANE GUSTAV HAS NOT MADE LANDFALL AND THETIDE LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SURGE MAY INCREASE WATER LEVELSAN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET.A POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARAND TO THE RIGHT OF LOCATION OF LANDFALL. LIFE THREATENINGFLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SECTIONS OF WEST JEFFERSON...AND LOWERLAFOURCHE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES COULD BE OVER TOPPED. AREASOUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...WILL BE SEVERELY INUNDATED.MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION IMPACTED BY THE STORMSURGE MAY BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BESWAMPED. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF BYSTORM SURGE FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL MOVEWELL INLAND ESPECIALLY ALONG BAYS AND BAYOUS. A STORM SURGE OFTHIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND POSES ASIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The storm's eye is almost indistinguishable. Recon reports that the south side is somewhat open. That's a sign that at least as Gustav's eye nears the coast, at least we don't have a tightly wound and super healthy hurricane. Nevertheless, it is still a major hurricane as of 6:37 am central.

Looking ahead, the storm will slow dramatically over the next day or so and that is a huge concern for inland flooding. Remember inland flooding has been a one of the biggest killers in the last few decades. Incredible rainfalls can occur from slow moving, dieing tropical systems. The unofficial 24 hour record rainfall for Texas occurred with Claudette in 1979 when 43 inches fell on Alvin in 24 hours.

So, everyone in central and western Louisiana and east Texas needs to really pay attention over the next 5 to 6 days. And even after that, there will likely be river flooding.

Unlike with a storm surge, you are often safest staying in your home. During Allison in 2001, the majority of the deaths in the Houston area occurred when people ventured outside during the flooding. Many were swept away by the floodwaters.

Also, tornado watches are now in effect in parts of Louisiana. Tornadoes will be of course over the next day or so as the storm moves over land.

More to come! Also, would like to point out that the Atlantic has many developing systems right now. It's September 1st and the tropics show a lot of activity.

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Be safe everyone.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman