Weather through Mid-Week/1st Tropical Storm Alex

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the western Caribbean. As I write this post on Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Reconaissance report is that the winds are already at 65 mph. If it makes it to 74 mph, then it will be a hurricane. But the storm will be hitting Belize in a few hours and likely crossing over the Yucatan, weakening and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Almost all forecast models now agree on it moving across the southern Gulf into Mexico by mid-week. The National Hurricane Center forecast has it very close to hurricane strength before the 2nd landfall.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Celia is moving westward and weakening. Hurricane Darby has also weakened and is forecast to move west and then turn northeast as it weakens and turns into a rainmaker.

In the US, a moderate risk for severe weather today in the 4 corners region of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. On Sunday, there will be some storms from the southwest through the Midwest into the Great Lakes and into the southeast. It will be very hot across the southwest with highs in the 100s and 90s for the rest of the south except coastal California which will have highs in the 60s. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s across the northern states.

Houston will be a tiny bit less humid on Sunday with only about a 10% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. On Monday through Wednesday, tropical flow returns with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do hurricane or huracán, pronounced hoo-rah-CAHN. What is the average date of the first huracán forming in the Atlantic basin. Find out in the AND MORE section.

Learning more than one language at an early age has been shown to increase math and science scores on standardized tests during later years. Who knows, your multi-lingual child could solve the big science problems? Get them excited about language early...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
I'm hearing a lot of grumbling that a storm forming in late June is soooooooooooo unusual. Actually, a storm forms in the Atlantic basin in June once every 2 years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for years 1966 through 2009, the average 1st named storm is 7/9, 1st hurricane is 8/10 and 1st major hurricane is September 4th. Now, if Alex becomes a hurricane, that will be rather early.

I also looked up the statistics for hurricanes hitting Texas in June. According to George W. Bomar's book Texas Weather, 2nd Edition Revised, here are some June strikes for Texas for the month of June for the years 1900 through 1989:
1913 June 27th Padre Island 100 mph winds at landfall
1921 June 22nd Port O'Connor 110 mph winds at landfall
1929 June 28th Port O'Connor 100 mph winds at landfall
1936 June 27th Port Aransas 80 mph winds at landfall
1957 June 27th Near Sabine Pass 100 mph winds at landfall (Audrey)
1986 June 26th Sea Rim State Park 87 mph winds at landfall (Bonnie)
And, I checked NOAA's archive for 1950 to 2009 and there were no June hurricane strikes from 1990 to 2009.
So, a June hurricane strike on Texas is rare.

Also, another interesting statistic I figured out, between these 2 sources for the total time period 1900 to 2009, there
are no July hurricanes strikes on Texas until at least July 15th.

I have a new poll for Twilight Enthusiasts and non-enthusiasts. Are you planning to see it or not? If so, when? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

Have a great weekend and for all of you heading out on vacation--safe travel.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Western Caribbean Disturbance/3 Month Weather Outlooks

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Western Caribbean system getting it's act together and National Hurricane Center giving it 60% chance of becoming an organized tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Models are still divergent. But the more "reliable" models take it into the Gulf and turn it northward and then northeastward. I don't even like to look at intensity forecasts as they are so unreliable. What I have seen generally shows an increase in strength and then a decrease and then an increase. Might note that early season storms are not known to be super strong wind wise. So that is a comfort. But, we have a lot of hurricane season left.

In the Pacific, Celia is a major hurricane--forecast to move generally westward and then eventually weaken after strengthening a bit more. Then there is the new hurricane...Darby...just off the western Mexican coast. This storm is forecast to strengthen slightly and move northwestward and then weaken as it turns northeast (aiming toward Mexico but due to continued weakening, likely to be nothing more than a rain maker if it makes it to Mexico).

On Friday, look for 60s, 70s and 80s on the west coast and northern states with 80s and 90s elsewhere and some 100s in the southwest. There will be some severe storms in the northern plains over to the western Great Lakes.

Houston will continue to swelter with a few thunderstorms. As I write this block, there are some lovely thunderstorms in the area...the rain sounds wonderful. The grass will be growing fast! A hot and humid weekend on the way with a few showers or thunderstorms each day...better chance midweek as an upper trough swings by to the north.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do debut or debutar, pronounced day-byoo-TAR. When will Positively Houston debutar...why it already did today! Find out more in the AND MORE section.

Your kids will be laughing, singing, dancing and most importantly learning when you order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
I've updated the 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. For Houston the outlook is for above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures...yikes...talk about your Amazon rainforest scenario. And it has been just that, with high temperatures (upper 90s) combined with very high humidity levels...making it feel like 105 most of the afternoon. This is that kind of heat and humidity where just being outside, even in the shade, is not comfortable.

I've also updated the drought monitor and outlook. Most of the country is not in severe drought and the outlook is mainly for persistence. So overall, drought not a huge problem nationwide.

The poll on eyelash extensions is closed. 40% of respondents said they would consider getting extensions while 60% said they would not. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated. I'll try to have a new poll in my next post.

Positively Houston premiered tonight! This is the good news program where I helped with the weather portion. Here is an overview of where you can see it from creator Christina Maxwell:

Positively Houston premiered tonight on Houston PBS 8.2 with The Weather Research Center at the John C. Freeman Weather Museum and will run a total of 44 times on the stations below until our next episode. Positively Houston will also air on other networks like HCC Television which are watched by several thousand people. HTV airs in all government buildings in Houston so we are likely to be seen by everyone waiting for Jury Duty as well.

This project is the fruition of 5 years of hard work and vision by Christina Maxwell. Congratulations Christina!!!

Have a fantastic Friday and weekend!!!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Caribbean Disturbance

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Just a quick update this evening to tell you that I am continuing to watch the disturbed area in the Caribbean. In a couple days the environment it is in will be more favorable for development. In the meantime, it is a rainmaker. Run to run, models are very inconsistent. But today's model runs all show it turning after entering the Gulf and veering toward the north central Gulf or northeastern Gulf.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Celia winds are down to 90...a slight increase and then decrease in strength anticipated by hurricane center over the next 5 days...with no threat to land. Further to east, Tropical Depression 5E has formed.

Houston highs have been in the upper 90s for several days...not quite records but very close and feeling like 105 due to the humidity. Wednesday and Thursday, look for some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon to cool things off.

Moderate risk for severe storms on Wednesday for the southern Great Lakes. And slight risk for a larger area around that.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do summer or verano, pronounced vair-RAH-noh. It's official...we're in verano.

Stimulate young minds over the summer break...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Summer has arrived...according to the US Naval Observatory, it arrived at 5:28 am yesterday (June 21st). And the Houston area has been sweltering, our family in Iowa has had many days of mild weather so far.

Stay cool!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hot and Sticky/Hurricane Celia/Houston-Galveston Hurricane Workshop

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Things really getting busy in the Pacific with Hurricane Celia in the eastern Pacific...no threat to land but expected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) on Tuesday. What is left of tropical depression Blas will continue to weaken as it moves westward and there is new area of disturbed weather just west of Acapulco.

In the Atlantic basin, 2 areas of disturbed weather...one threatening heavy rain for Haiti (and already brought heavy rain to Puerto Rico) with almost no chance of developing over the next couple of days as it moves westward and another near the southern Windward Islands. Hi Mollie and Kevin in Trinidad...are you getting wet? That one has less than a 10% chance of developing according to the National Hurricane Center. Long range models show something trying to get organized in the central Gulf next weekend...so stay tuned.

On Monday, very hot and steamy for the southern and eastern US. Pleasant for the west coast and northern Rockies with highs in the 60s up to low 80s. Some severe weather Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Houston, this is the drill and it hurts...hot and humid all week. Maybe a few sea breeze afternoon storms late in the week...no big changes on the horizon.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do oil or petróleo, pronounced peh-TROH-lay-oh. I found out that people are worried about hurricane season and the petróleo spill. Find out how I learned that in the AND MORE section.

Birthday gift or just a special treat...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
The Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop was well attended on Saturday June 19th. It was held in the George R. Brown Convention Center and as you know the building is blocks long. Well, I accidentally walked into the Gun Show and was immediately asked if I would like to sign up for NRA membership. Well, I finally got to the right place and enjoyed working with many of the on air meteorologists in the Houston market. There were two sessions where they fielded questions from an audience and I was the moderator. There was a slightly different mix of on air meteorologists during the 2 sessions due to schedules and autograph signings.

The oil spill was very much on the minds of folks in both sessions. They wanted to know if a hurricane could move the oil toward the Texas coast. Generally, the panel answered that yes it could happen but that depending on the storm, a hurricane might actually help mix the oil out over a larger area. On the down side, oil might be pushed into our estuaries and riverways. One thing that was clarified is that you should not worry about the spill causing oil rain or acid rain.

I remember the oil spell from the Bay of Campeche Explosion in 1979. South Padre Island beaches got dirty and it was a nuisance but generally speaking, we just cleaned the oil off our feet and shoes. Eventually, a storm named Frederick helped disperse the oil. So, looking back on that, maybe a hurricane would be helpful.

I went to Bill Read's talk. He is the head of the National Hurricane Center. He pointed out that for every 4 evacuations you are asked to make, only 1 will be for an actual catastrophic hit. The point was if you have evacuated 2 or 3 times and nothing happened, don't ignore additional evacuations, because that might be the one you really need to make.

Happy Father's Day to all you dads.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Depression 2E/Father's Day Tributes/Fresh Air Program

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
There is a weakening tropical wave in the Atlantic and newly formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Pacific. This storm is forecast to moved westward and strengthen to a tropical storm tomorrow (Thursday).

Weak trough out west and ridge east is reluctant to move. That means it will continue to be hot and sticky in the southeast for at least a week. It also means fairly comfortable weather for the Rockies and northern plains and some storms on and off from the Rockies to the central plains.

Houston you are part of that hot and sticky scenario with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s and heat indices (how it feels with the humidity) running close to 105. Stay cool!

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do father or papá, pronounced pah-PAH. Happy papá's day! See the AND MORE section for a description of my favorite dads.

Kids getting restless...tired of swimming and the heat...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
FRESH AIR FUND NEEDS YOUR HELP
Sarah Wilson sent me a request asking me to publicize the need for help for a special charity which gives inner New York City kids a chance to have some non-city experiences.

In 2009, The Fresh Air Fund's Volunteer Host Family program, called Friendly Town, gave close to 5,000 New York City boys and girls, ages six to 18, free summer experiences in the country and the suburbs. Volunteer host families shared their friendship and homes FOR up to two weeks or more in 13 Northeastern states from Virginia to Maine and Canada.

The Fresh Air Fund relies on donations to provide memorable summers to NYC children.

The Fresh Air Fund needs hosts for the summer of 2010.

More than 65% of all Fresh Air children are reinvited to stay with their host family, year after year.
Here is the link:
http://freshairfundhost.com/

Houston Chapter of the American Meteorological Society Meeting 6/17
You don't want to miss this one!!!

The National Hurricane Program - some thoughts going into my 3rd season
Presented by Bill Read,
Director, National Hurricane Center
Thursday, June 17th
Dinner – 6:00 pm, Meeting 7:00-8:30 pm
Saltgrass Steakhouse
20241 Gulf Freeway
Webster, TX 77598-4809

Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop at George R. Brown Sat. 6/19
Come on out for this free workship from 10 am to 3 pm and there is a huge kid zone that is just amazing. I will be hosting 2 sessions of meet the meteorological media. Hope to see you there!!! Admission is free!

Getting my driver's license renewed
At certain times, you have to go to the DPS and get your license renewed...it is as certain as death and taxes. I went to Rosenberg this morning and there was a line out into the parking lot...too hot and slow. So I headed to the office on Dacoma in Houston and at least wait was in the a/c. But it took 2 hours from the time I walked in until the time I left. I got to talking to one 20 year old lady who said she had been trying to pass the written test since 16. She seemed overwhelmed by the booklet and said it was dumb to have to know all of that stuff. Well, all I could think was thank goodness there is a test. And I asked her, Don't you want to know all the rules so you can drive as safely as possible? She just looked at me with a glazed expression. Thank goodness for certain controls!!!

Here's a list of item values for when you itemize charitable contributions
So I ran into this by accident...Goodwill has published this list of how they value items. This way you have a nice guide for putting value on your charitable contributions.
http://www.goodwillncw.org/donationbrochure.pdf

Tribute to my Favorite Dads
No one could ever take the place of my own Dad who passed away 3 weeks before we got Sarah. He was funny and determined to live life by his principles. He was also very smart...loved science and math. Long before I saw my first episode of Star Trek, he told me all about it and made me love it. Then, when I did see it, I loved it more than I could imagine. He went to work every day, even when things were very tough. He was home every night eating dinner with the whole family. He was there when we prayed as a family and when we went to church. I miss my Dad.

Now Gordy is an amazing and passionate dad. He worries unceasingly about both his girls and would do anything for them. He gives hugs and kisses in unlimited quantities and even when exhausted, he gets up every day and takes Sarah to school. He takes his family to church every week. He provides a terrific example by putting others first. The world needs more dads like him!!!

My stepdad, Gerry, is a joy! I can't thank God enough for bringing him and my mom together. He recharged her in a way I could have never hoped. And, he treats all of his kids like his very own. He stepped in and filled a hole in a way I could have never imagined and now I can't imagine our lives without him. He's also an amazing musician!!!

My father-in-law Dale is a big lovable bear. At 75, he still goes to work every day. His favorite thing is to take his family around in his ski boat. He loves to be with family more than anything else. He has infinite patience and love for all of his grandkids. I couldn't have designed a better father-in-law.

The biological father of Sarah is very special to me. He loved her so much that he made the choice to give her the best home he could find. I am so very grateful for his decision and love him very much.

Happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there!!!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Weekend Forecast/Deadly Flash Floods/Eyelash Extensions

WEATHER
Hot and sticky for the south and southeast US this weekend as the jet stream dips south over the Rockies, keeping the eastern US in the warm, moist flow from the Gulf. Very pleasantly cool for the Rockies and northern plains and intermountain region with highs in the 50s and 60s. West coast will have highs in the 60s to 80s and the northeast will have highs in the 70s. Look for some severe storms from west Texas to Missouri and Iowa.

Houston will be hot and sticky through the weekend with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons/early evenings.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Instead of a Spanish word of the day, I am going to make a qualification/modification to my last entry. I was talking about a famous psychic living in Sugar Land. My good friend and expert linguist, Raul Feliciano Sanchez told me a better choice than for psychic than parasicológico would be vidente, pronounced vee-DEN-tay. Thanks Raul!!!

Just got another big order from one of my distributors--Don't miss out...order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
My poll on which show/celebrities will lose popularity the fastest is closed. 100% of respondents said that High School Musical will. No one selected Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana or Suite Life on Deck. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated.

My new poll is about eyelash extensions. Would you consider getting them? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

So why you ask...am I doing a poll about eyelash extensions? Well every time I go to the John C. Freeman weather museum, I pass a business on Southmore called Novalash The Academy of Eyelash Arts and Sciences. So I checked it out and Houston, we are the headquarters of this eyelash extension company. They have certified professionals and training programs across the US and even internationally. Who would have thunk it?

Speaking of the John C. Freeman Weather Museum, I was heading there this morning to tape updates for the premier of Positively Houston, a positive variety news program that will air on PBS 8.2 Digital on June 26th. It will also appear on Houston Public Television. I am super excited to be involved in this project after shooting the pilot last year. Hope you will like it too. The museum and Weather Research Center will figure prominently as a focal point for weather information. By the way, don't forget to get your kids enrolled in weather camps at the museum this summer.

Last Sunday, Sarah and I headed to the Children's Museum to use some free passes. It is one of Sarah's favorite places. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the parking and admission were free (courtesy of Target). And there will be Target free days July 16, 17 and 18 and on the first Sunday of August (the 1st). We decided to save our free passes for another day. It was very busy. So, be prepared for that if you go on a free day (trust me, Sarah didn't care). And Family Free Nights are every Thursday 5 to 8 pm.

Today's flooding deaths in Arkansas reminded me of some other deadly river flooding events...August 26, 1998 when the remnants of Tropical Storm Charley cashed flash flooding on the Rio Grande, killing 13 people in Val Verde county (some while they slept) and 7 people on the Mexico side in Ciudad Acuña.

Then, there was the Estes park flooding of 7/31 and 8/1 of 1976. At least 139 people were killed by the flash flooding. My family was in Colorado that summer and my mom said she had looked into going to Estes Park, but she had found a different location for our destination.

Flash flooding is a killer--one that most people don't understand and often don't respect. Remember the rule of thumb if you encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don't Drown. On the other hand, some of the people who died in the events I mentioned were sleeping at the time...in homes close to waterways. Whether traveling or at home, be aware of the flood history of the area where you are staying and monitor weather via television and radio when you are in flood prone areas. Usually you are safest staying home, even moving up to an attic or the roof if needed. But, if authorities tell you to leave, you should always get out.

Have a safe weekend everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Upper Low Means Rain for Houston

WEATHER
Very hot across the southwest with lots of 100s. Hot steamy for the south and southeast with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Mild for the west coast and northern tier with highs in the 60s and 70s. There is a slight risk of severe storms from Colorado down to the panhandle of TX eastward through the Midwest.

Houston, there is an upper low west of us and that means scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. The low will be very slow to move out but should be to the northeast of us by the weekend. So, rain chances will decrease some. Highs will be in the upper 80s through Wednesday.


SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do tired or cansado or cansada, pronounced cahn-SAH-dough or cahn-SAH-dah. Tonight I am cansada. So, I am going to keep this blog short.

Don't forget to order my award winning DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. They are on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

Have a terrific Tuesday everyone!
P.S. Taylor just told me to tell everyone "hi".

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman