Claudette forms in Gulf!/I was a Hurricane Hunter/This Week's Weather

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Wow! There is not a dull moment lately. While Ana weakened and became a tropical depression today, the system in the eastern Gulf got its act together and at 11 am, the National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Storm Claudette had formed! Don't forget that we also have Bill out in the Atlantic and it will likely become a hurricane tonight.

First of all, Ana has a tough road ahead because its path will be primarily over islands such as Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Cuba. If it holds together, it will emerge in the southeastern Gulf around Thursday and probably be in the central Gulf end of the week. So, we need to watch it carefully. My gut is that it won't head toward Houston because of the steering pattern around the Bermuda High. But it is way too soon to tell. And strength-wise, again, it may not even survive moving over so much land. But I'll keep a close eye on it. This is a good time to revisit your supplies and preparedness plans.

Looks like Bill is going to stay away from the US. By Wednesday, it could be a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) with Bermuda being most threatened.

Claudette should make landfall Sunday night along the northeastern Gulf (Florida panhandle) and then bring rain to the southeast US.

I haven't forgotten about Hurricane Guillermo in the eastern Pacific. It will weaken as it moves over cooler water and it looks like Hawaii will be spared a hit.

On Monday, eastern ridge has flattened a bit but it is still most pronounced southcentral and eastern US. Trough is over north central US and that is where the highs in the 70s will be. Highs will also be in the 70s along coastal California. The Pacific Northwest will be in the 70s and 80s. Highs will be in the 100s in the desert southwest. Look for 90s from Texas to Boston. Look for some severe storms from Colorado to Illinois.

Houston continues hot and humid...there will be more of that this week with scattered showers and thunderstorms (some with heavy downpours) on Monday and Tuesday.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do hunter or cazador, pronounced cah-zah-DOOR. I am a cazador...to find out what I have hunted, read the And More section.

I was at the editor's this afternoon. We were finishing up some final edits of Volume 2 of our DVD series for children, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. It's almost done and I am super excited about how nice it looks. Until it is ready, you can purchase our winning Volume 1 DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from the shelves of many Barnes & Noble stores throught the US. If not there, you can also order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com/. You can also order from http://www.venturaes.com/, http://www.dololanguages.com/, http://www.carlexonline.com,www.thecuriousmindstore.com/, http://www.amazon.com/, http://www.bestbuy.com/, and http://www.barnesandnoble.com/. For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, go to http://www.frankypaco.com/.

AND MORE
Seeing Claudette form today reminded of the last Claudette--the one I flew through!!! It was in July of 2003 that Hurricane Claudette hit the upper Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane. Because of where it came in and the forward speed, it actually caused a Category 3 type storm surge in a small area of coastal Brazoria and Matagorda counties. In Houston, it mostly brought some sporadic heavy rain and some gusty winds. When the storm was first moving into the Gulf, I flew through it. The flight took about 10 hours and was quite memorable. I thought I was doing so well. But when they kept making passes through the center over and over, (I think on the 10th pass), I lost it...and I think you know what I mean. I had been on the headsets talking to the crew. They wondered how I was doing and kind of laughed and joked around. After I got sick, I felt so foolish. But later, they told me that even those of them who had flown thousands of missions got sick a lot, because your inner ear just can't get used to that. The aircraft was a very well maintained WC-130...been around since the 50s I think. When it got dark, there was no way to get your bearings...can't see the horizon and the few windows they have where you sit in the cargo hold are really small and high. So, you just get sick.

Anyway, they gave me a nice certificate to help me remember the adventure and here is what it said.
"Honorary Hurricane Hunter
Let it be known to the world that Cecilia Sinclair did, with great skill and remarkable airmanship, penetrate for the first time the eyewall of a fully-developed hurricane [PLEASE NOTE IT WAS NOT YET A HURRICANE WHEN I FLEW THROUGH IT BUT IT WAS BUMPY ENOUGH-BELIEVE ME!]. This individual's undaunted dedication and fearless devotion to duties, while being bounced, rocked, rolled and slammed about the aircraft interior reflect great credit, luck and a high threshold for personal injury. In testimony thereof, this certificate is awarded to this "Hurricane Hunter" for meritorious achievement while participating in the penetration of Tropical Storm Claudette aboard a WC-130 Hercules Aircraft given under my hand at Keesler AFB, Mississippi this 11th day of July 2003."
And it was signed by Brigadier General Rick Ethredge, Commander, 403rd Wing.

I'll tell you more war stories later. But I also want to tell you about Tropical Storm Claudette of 1979 which dumped extremely heavy rain south of Houston. In Alvin, it dropped a total of 45" of rain (43 of those inches in 24 hours). That 43 was never made official--but if it was--that would be the all time greatest 24 hour rainfall in all of North America--and that was right here in our own backyard!!! Even 2001's Allison did not come close to that total. That one did have some 20" in 10 hours east of Houston and it was so devastating because highly populated areas were hit hard.

I'll keep an eye on all of those storms for you whether it be a Claudette, Ana or something else.

Have a great week!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Storm Bill forms! Watching low pressure in eastern Gulf!

Quick update this evening to tell you that Tropical Storm Bill formed today (east of Tropical Storm Ana). The forecast is for Bill to become a hurricane but not make it into the Gulf. Ana is forecast to stay a tropical storm and probably make it into the Gulf. Also watching area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf which should move northwest toward the north central Gulf coast. National Hurricane Center says that it is not expected to become a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. More to come!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Storm Ana forms in Atlantic/Congratulations Habitat for Humanity

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
The first named storm in the Atlantic has formed. This was Tropical Depression #2 which fell apart, but the remnants moved into a more favorable environment and now voila, here is Tropical Storm Ana! The storm is forecast to gradually strengthen as it approaches the eastern US. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the disturbed area east of Ana. This has more than a 50% chance of becoming a storm (according to the National Hurricane Center) probably within 2 days. If that happens, it will be named Bill. According to some of the models, this storm could be a major (Category 3) hurricane within 5 days...latest model forecast paths take it toward the southeast US. It is way to soon to tell.

In the Pacific, Guillermo is now a major hurricane. National Hurricane Center projects it will probably move off to the north of Hawaii as it weakens.

In the US, ridge is over eastern part of the country while trough is digging out west and over north central US. Look for severe storms just east of there. In fact, there are storms moving through Iowa this am...none yet severe as of this writing. Highs over northern plains and on west coast will be in the 70s while highs will be in the 90s and 100s over Texas and the desert southwest. Elsewhere, expect low 90s and 80s.

Houston will be hot and humid with some isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday. Nothing new there!

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do home or casa, pronounced CAH-sah. Habitat for Humanity has completed yet another casa. See the story in the AND MORE section.

Volume 2 is getting close to completion...Talking about our DVD series for children, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. In the meantime, you can purchase our winning Volume 1 DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from the shelves of many Barnes & Noble stores throught the US. If not there, you can also order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com/. You can also order from http://www.venturaes.com/, http://www.dololanguages.com/, http://www.carlexonline.com,www.thecuriousmindstore.com/, http://www.amazon.com/, http://www.bestbuy.com/, and http://www.barnesandnoble.com/. For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, go to http://www.frankypaco.com/.

AND MORE
My niece Courtney graduated (walked) yesterday (Saturday) from Texas A & M. Her husband will complete his degree there this coming May. Her sisters, Brittany and Hannah as well as about 30 friends and family members were on hand to celebrate.

Congratulations to Fort Bend Habitat for Humanity for completing its 50th home!!! They will start the 51st home in Richmond in the fall. For the complete story, go to my friend Leslie Williams article:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nb/fortbend/news/6558782.html#

Have a great weekend everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Update including Tropical Storm Guillermo

Good Morning All -
Just a quick tropical/general weather update this am.

First of all in the Atlantic...good news...Tropical Depression #2 has weakened and latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is that it will only make it to low end tropical storm strength. Still carefully watching other area just off west coast Africa. Long range models now show it moving across the Atlantic and approaching the southeast US (and not getting into the Gulf).

In the Pacific, T.D. Nine-E has weakened so much that it is now just an area of low pressure. But all eyes are no on newly formed Tropical Storm Guillermo which is forecast to strengthen (at least initially) as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii. Stay tuned.

In the U.S., a trough is digging south in the west U.S. That is making the weather cooler in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Meanwhile, temperatures are climbing in the eastern U.S. as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. The hottest spots on Thursday will be Texas and the desert southwest with highs in the 90s and 100s. Some weather is possible Thursday in Montana and western North Dakota.

Houston reached 101 on Thursday!!! I thought it seemed even hotter! Look for a hot and sticky day on Thursday with a location or two close to the century mark. There will also be some scattered storms in the afternoon and early evening--how about those storms on Wednesday!

Have a wonderful day!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropics Getting Busy!/New Poll

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
The tropics are really heating up! First of all in the Pacific, Hawaii still has a Flood Advisory for Oahu and High Surf Warnings (from dissipating Felicia) and as I check the radar this morning, there are more rain bands over Oahu and approaching the northern islands. Now, Tropical Depression Nine-E (see forecast track at right) has developed and long range forecast from National Hurricane Center slowly strengthens it while steering it toward Hawaii. More to come on that.

In the Atlantic, we are watching 4 areas including Tropical Depression #2 which might be Tropical Storm Ana (first named storm of season) by the time you read this post. Good news is that even with some slow strengthening, it should not endanger any land areas. However, the area just off the west coast of Africa does bear watching...long range models suggesting that it will get into the Gulf by the end of next week. The other 2 areas of disturbed weather will be watched but their potential to develop looks limited.

Jet Stream is starting to dig out west which means cooler temperatures will be moving into the Rockies in a couple days while the ridge builds out east. Today, Wednesday, it will reach the 90s and 100s across the southwest and south central US. Look for 80s east. The Pacific Northwest will be nice and cool in the 60s with 70s western California. There will be many areas with thunderstorms, some severe central and east coast (see figure at right).

Houston hit 99 on Tuesday...more hot and sticky weather through the week with some scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do school or escuela, pronounced ehs-CWEH-lah. See our new poll about kids going back to escuela in the AND MORE section.

We are working hard on finishing up Volume 2 of Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. Our technical team is reviewing right now. In the meantime, you can purchase our winning Volume 1 DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from the shelves of many Barnes & Noble stores throught the US. If not there, you can also order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com/. You can also order from http://www.venturaes.com/, http://www.dololanguages.com/, http://www.carlexonline.com,www.thecuriousmindstore.com/, http://www.amazon.com/, http://www.bestbuy.com/, and http://www.barnesandnoble.com/. For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, go to http://www.frankypaco.com/.

AND MORE
Our last poll on Tiger Woods was a bust...no one had an opinion about his performance and potential to perform. But I'll bet our new poll garners some interest...what is the best thing about the kids going back to school? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance!

Have a wonderful Wednesday everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Weather for the Week/Meeting the Wiggles/Felicia and Hawaii

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Some excitement in the tropical Atlantic with an area of disturbed weather off the west coast of Africa which has a 30 to 50% chance for development (according to the National Hurricane Center). It is moving westward about 10 to 15 mph...at least 7 days from any land impacts.

Felicia is now a tropical storm...forecast by the National Hurricane Center to potentially move through the Hawaii Islands..particularly Mauii and surrounding islands as a tropical depression on Tuesday. More to come on that.

Ridge has flattened and the jet stream is way north...that means highs in the 90s as far north as Boston and Medford, Oregon and 100s in the desert southwest. Milder 70s and 80s along the west coast and northern states. Look for some severe storms from the plains to the northeast.

Houston had some beneficial thunderstorms over the weekend. Look for some isolated storms each day of this week...still hot and sticky though.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
A special thank you to dear friend and fluent Spanish speaker Tom Ryan. He caught a typo in Friday's spanish word of the day. I guess I shouldn't be writing these blogs so late in the day. Thanks Tom! Never ever want to teach a word incorrectly. The word for treatment is tratamiento, pronounced trah-tah-mee-EHN-toe.

Today, let's do concert or concierto, pronounced cown-see-AIR-toe. The Wiggles gave a fabulous live concierto today at Hobby Center.

And speaking of performances, we just reviewed the our upcoming 2nd volume of the Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, My Day, My Body, My Feelings. Just a few more finishing touches and a technical review and it will be released! Will let you know soon! Plan on purchasing that one for all your holiday gifts for kids.

In the meantime, you can purchase our winning Volume 1 DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from the shelves of many Barnes & Noble stores throught the US. If not there, you can also order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com/. You can also order from http://www.venturaes.com/, http://www.dololanguages.com/, http://www.carlexonline.com,www.thecuriousmindstore.com/, http://www.amazon.com/, http://www.bestbuy.com/, and http://www.barnesandnoble.com/. For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, go to http://www.frankypaco.com/.

AND MORE
Today was a super exciting day!!! We not only went to see The Wiggles Go Bananas! Live in Concert show but we also met the Wiggles in person. Because Sarah has a syndrome and I knew that The Wiggles were originally educators and have a special place in their hearts for special needs children, I asked if Sarah could meet them. And the answer was certainly. We had to be there by noon and at about 12:20, Sarah, Gordy and I and other special children and their families were ushered to a private room where the Wiggles visited with us and allowed us to take pictures like the one you see at right. Sarah was sure to ask about Greg and how he is feeling. And she told Captain Feathersword, "Hi there Captain Feathersword" and he said, "Ahoy there matey". The coolest part is that later we saw Anthony and he said "Nice meeting you Sarah". he remembered her name after meeting all those families. I found that quite touching and impressive.

Speaking of touching, I ran into Linda Rosas, a friend of my Aunt Elizabeth Gearhart, who has worked closely with the ill at Comfort House in McAllen. Elizabeth was very involved in the care of Victor Alvarez, a youngster with Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA). Well, Linda's granddaughter Courtney Rosas also has SMA. Linda is devoted to making Courtney's quality of life as good as it can possibly be. Courtney is now 6 thanks to the tender loving care provided by her and her daughter, Courtney's mother. Linda quit her job once they received the diagnosis and has taken shifts with her daughter for the care of Courtney. They never get more than 4 hours of sleep at a time and have run through all of their savings. They are having a fundraiser on October 4th at Clear Lake Lanes Bowling Alley. It will be a 50s theme. To get more information, contact Linda at courtneysgrandma41303@hotmail.com. And be sure to check out their web site www.our-sma-angels.com/CourtneyBrooke. By the way, August is national Spinal Muscular Atrophy awareness month.

A couple of the dancers, Karl and Mario, took the photos with the Wiggles before the show. Karl met Anthony at a gymnastics center where he worked and Anthony invited him to come on the show. He has been with the group since last Spring. Mario is a dancer who has been with the group for 3 years. I noticed Mario had a bandage on his arm and I asked him if he had hurt a muscle and he said yes. I asked about the Wiggles themselves getting injuries since they are as old as me (and some of them are older!). He said that they get massages and have had troubles on and off. For example, Murray has had trouble with a nagging injury in his leg.

Well anyway, the reason Anthony was visiting the gym is because he is all into working out in gymnastics now. We have a DVD from one of the older shows and there is mostly dancing. But now they have some gymnasts and do a lot of gymnastics in the show...including Anthony, Captain Feathersword and Jeff. All of them including Murray have become super thin. But the most changed is Anthony...he was sooooooooo skinny. Looks like he is having a great time getting in shape! He seemed to really enjoy himself.

Yesterday, we met up with the twins at the pool. Alexander and Michael are now up to 9 and 11 pounds respectively. They are 3 and half months old. Alexander slept most of the time. But Michael was smiling and wiggling. I got to cuddle him for a long time. Both are doing very well. And so are proud parents Ned and Danielle and big brother Teddy.

Well gotta run! Have a wonderful week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Rain in Forecast/Hurricane Felicia/Best Cancer Treatment

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Tropical Atlantic is quiet. In the Pacific, Enrique is a tropical depression. Felicia should start to weaken soon. But according to the National Hurricane Center, a weakened depression over tropical storm strength version of it should move over Hawaii late Monday. More to come on that.

Ridge is shifting eastward and it is going to be a very hot weekend from the southern plains into the southeast with middle and high 90s and highs humidity. There will be thunderstorms in many locations but the severe threat will be in the northern plains and western Great Lakes states.

Houston hit 99 on Friday. Some isolated storms brought 1.5 inches of rain to Sugar Land and 1.3 inches in League City. Isolated storms are possible again on Saturday with highs in the middle to upper 90. Looks like there will be some scattered storms on Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do tratimiento, pronounced trah-tee-mee-EHN-toe. There is a unique cancer tratimiento in Houston. Learn about it in the AND MORE section.

Our award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, is on the shelves of Barnes & Noble store throught the US. Please look for it and encourage your family and friends to purchase it. We are being tested. We gave them 650 DVDs and in 6 weeks, 43 have sold. I was told by our distributor that is excellent for an educational product in the summer. It should keep us in Barnes & Noble's good graces. But, it sure would help if we sold more. You can also order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com/. You can also order from http://www.venturaes.com/, http://www.dololanguages.com/, http://www.carlexonline.com,www.thecuriousmindstore.com/, http://www.amazon.com/, http://www.bestbuy.com/, and http://www.barnesandnoble.com/. For our English as a Second Language (ESL) version, go to http://www.frankypaco.com/.

AND MORE
I put a picture of the MD Anderson Proton Therapy Treatment Center to the right. This is where my stepdad recently completed a course of treatment. This is more than just your standard radiation treatment. This is a very specific radiation that starts and ends at precisely the right point to avoid damaging healthy tissue ahead of and behind the cancer area. There are only 2 facilities in the world which have this kind of technology and this is one of them. My stepdad was able to lead his normally crazy busy life with a minimal impact. We are happy to report that he has completed the course of treatment--I believe there were 38 sessions. His followup will be in 3 months.

As I've mentioned, I am on the board of The John C. Freeman Weather Museum. The associated Weather Research Center does lots of research including tropical meteorology. Their forecast for this year is 7 named storms, 4 of those hurricanes. On August 4th (3 days ago), Dr. William Gray and colleage Dr. Phil Klotzbach issued a revised forecast for this season (partly based on the El Nino which as developed). They are now calling for 10 named storms, 4 of those hurricanes, 2 of those major hurricanes. They forecast issued in early June called for 11, 5, and 2 respectively. An average season has 10, 6 and 2 respectively. The following is an excerpt from a report recently released by the Weather Research Center discussing how we have had no storms yet and how that does not guarantee a problem free season (as proven through previous seasons with slow starts).

"Since Weather Research Center [WRC] does not update their Seasonal urricane Outlook during the season, they continue to expect a total of seven namedstorms in the Atlantic with four intensifying into hurricanes. There have been 30 otherhurricane seasons when the first storm formed after August 1, since 1900. There have been only four seasons [1941, 1920, 1914 and 1905] when the first storm formed afterSeptember 1. The last time we experienced a similar late season start was 2004 whenAlex formed on August 1, according to Weather Research Center [WRC] meteorologist Jill F. Hasling. However, a late start does not mean a break. For example, Ivan theTerrible occurred in 2004 and in 1988, Gilbert became a large Category 5 hurricane.And who could forget Hurricane Alicia in 1983 which was a Category 3 hurricane whenit made landfall in Galveston.The peak of activity for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is from August 15 to September15 so we still need to be prepared.WRC’s 2009 outlook gives the Louisiana to Alabama coast the highest risk ofexperiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. Additionally, the outlook anticipates seven hurricane days and 47 tropical storm days during this year’s season.Below is a table of the date of the first named storms in the years indicated. There were 30 years from 1900 to 2008 when the date of the first storm was after July 31. There were 18 years whenthe date of the first storm was August 15 or later, 12 years when the date of the first storm wasafter August 20, and four seasons when the date of the first storm was after August 31. Thelatest date for the first named storm was September 15. In other words you have 27.5% chanceof having the first storm after July 31st, 16.5% chance of having the first storm after August 14th, 11% chance of having the first storm after August 20th and 3.7% chance of having the first storm after August 31st."

Speaking of The Weather Research Center, they have a wonderful model page. If you want to see some of the models meteorologists enjoy reviewing, go to this link:

http://wxresearch.com/model.html

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman