Tropical Update Monday Evening

Just a quick note tonight to say keep an eye on the eastern Gulf disturbance. Consensus of models takes to Louisiana in a couple days. Best chance for rain Houston Thursday...some scattered stuff still possible into weekend.

Still very hot through Thursday and National Weather Service has heat advisory for most of Houston area until Tuesday 7 pm. Must of nation's mid-section until head advisories or warnings with ridge of high pressure really doing some cooking.

Have a great (cool) week!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Storm Colin Returns/Federal Building in 2 States/Why I Love Nintendo

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
In the Atlantic, Colin is back! But it is unlikely to affect any land area directly except possibly Bermuda and Newfoundland. And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not expecting it to become a hurricane. In the far eastern Atlantic, the NHC is monitoring Invest 93 which they say has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. But, the models are indicating it will likely not threaten any land areas, moving through the open waters of the Atlantic (eventually dieing in the northern Atlantic).

In the eastern Pacific is newly formed Tropical Depression 7E. This system should move west-northwest and not threaten any land areas.

Let's start with the coolest areas...west coast California, coastal Washington, northern Great Lakes and norhern New England highs in the 60s and 70s today. 100+ for Dallas and las Vegas. Elsewhere highs in the 80s and 90s. Slight risk for severe storms Montana/South Dakota/North Dakota and the southeastern states.

Houston is under another Heat Advisory this Friday as it is expected to feel like 105 or hotter for much of the afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if there is another heat advisory for Saturday and possibly Sunday. There is a slight weakness in our high pressure ridge. So, we will probably get some cooling thunderstorms today, Saturday and Sunday. But not everyone will get the rain. Stay cool!

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do service or servicio, pronounced sair-vee-SEE-oh. Find out about some excellent servicio I got in the AND MORE section.

There is a lot of excitement about our soon to be released Volume 3 which will cover the alphabet (with words beginning with those letters), numbers 1 through 20 and colors. We will also have a special music CD release covering all three volumes. In the meantime, you can order my DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco Volumes 1 and 2 on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
New Poll on Lance Berkman
You have probably already moved on, but I was curious about how you felt about Lance Berkman leaving the Astros. I met him once when I was working a special adoption awareness day on the night of an Astros game. Lance met with me and some children who were hoping to be adopted. The little boy in the group gave him his assessment of things and Lance responded in a way that showed he truly cared about what the little boy had to say. I really respected him for that. And, I have to say I was sad when I heard he had left the Astros. I felt like the soul of the team was gone. So, anyway, here's the new poll. More than one answer is allowed (trying to cover all your possible feelings). Thanks in advance for responding.

Federal Building is in Two States
Sarah loves to pick up postcards when we travel. Looking through them, I found one which showed the Texarkana Post Office and Courthouse lies in Texas and Arkansas. Apparently the state border goes right through the middle of it. I found a web site (Texasescapes.com) which has some neat pictures of the building and state line street and one funny comic strip. Enjoy!
http://www.texasescapes.com/EastTexasTowns/TexarkanaTexas/Texarkana-Texas-Arkansas-State-Line.htm

Old Kimberling City Lies Under 150 Feet of Water
When we go to Table Rock Lake (in Southwest Missouri and just outside of Branson) each summer, we often pass under the Kimberling City bridge opened in 1958. The original bridge is close by...about 150 feet under the water. You see the Corp of Engineers decided to flood that valley in the 1950s so that the area could be opened for recreation. Way down in that valley were villages and another bridge...the old Kimberling City bridge. They say if you were to dive down there, we would find the bridge and some old buildings. They weren't torn down...just allowed to stay in place with the water inundating them. It is kind of creepy to float over that area and realize there are structures down there. I found this Photobucket site with photos of the "new" bridge. Notice how high the water is...I think those were taken during some historic floods 2 years ago. I heard you could take your boat under the bridge and actually hang onto it. The water was so high that for a while they had to close the bridge to traffic.
http://photobucket.com/images/Kimberling%20City%20bridge/

Nintendo DS Fix for Free
I don't know what Sarah may have done to her Nintendo DS Lite (she has only had for 3 months) but it just stopped working. So, I contacted Nintendo and they were so kind. I didn't have a serial number because Sarah had pulled off the sticker and I didn't have a receipt because it was a gift. Well, they didn't care. They sent me a link so I could print my own FedEx label and all I have to do is package it up and they are going to send her a brand new one. Who says there isn't customer service anymore? I am sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo impressed!!!

Have a great weekend everyone!!!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Update/HEB Gift Super Gift Card Deal/Seeing Peter Pan

WEATHER
In the Atlantic, Colin forms and then it fizzles. There is still a possiblity it could reform but for now, the National Hurricane Center, is no longer issuing advisories on it. Track forecast is mainly to miss the US and even to miss Bermuda. Will monitor.

Meanwhile, those of us in Texas need to keep a close eye on the disturbance in the eastern Caribbean. There are indications that it will organize and become a hurricane as it tracks westward and then into the Gulf. Most models at this point have it hitting Mexico but it is way early. Will keep you posted.

Another disturbance in the eastern Pacific has only a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

On Wednesday, there is a slight risk for severe storms from Iowa and Missouri over to Ohio. Brutally hot in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and the desert Southwest with many 100+ readings. Very hot and and sticky for the eastern US, except the northeast which will have highs in the 70s and 80s. West coast of California will be the cool spot with highs in the 60s. Also pleasant for the northern tier of states with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Houston will continue hot and humid with highs near 97 or 98 through the weekend. Slight risk for rain returns Wednesday through the weekend, but it is low--only 10 to 20%.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do charitable organization or entidad benéfica, pronounced ehn-tee-DAD behn-AY-fee-cah. Learn more about a neat entidad benéfica in the AND MORE section.

Unless you are swimming, it is just too hot to be oustide? Let the kids exercise their brains by watching my award winning Spanish language DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. You can find Volumes 1 and 2 on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
Build-A-Bear Poll Results
My poll on how many Build-A-Bear projects you have purchased is closed. 42% said none. 14% said one. 0% said 2. 28% said 3. And, 14% said more than 3. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to allwho participated.

I'll have a new poll in my next blog.

Great Gift Card Deal at HEB!
If you buy any gift card in any amount at HEB, you will get a $5 coupon off any purchase of at least $15 worth of groceries in the following 2 weeks. Well, I easily spend that each time I go and I get groceries at least once a week. So think about this, this is like getting a $15 gift card for only $10. Great deal!!!

Sarah Meets Cathy Rigby
In a previous posted, I told you how we were driving in Branson and saw that Cathy Rigby was starring in the musical Peter Pan. This was my 12th trip to the area (we go to Table Rock Lake) and I had never been to any show. Well, Sarah decided that she wanted to see it. So, we did! And what a wonderful show it was!!! I was so impressed at the gymnastics being performed by Cathy Rigby--now 57 years old. The end of the show was a big thrill when she walked out for the curtain call and then flew right at us and way to the rear of the audience. I totally did not expect that. She threw fists full of "pixie dust" as she flew overhead and it ended up down my shirt and in my purse. It scared Sarah a bit but she recovered.

Anyway, after the show, people lined up to give a $1 donation to get a picture and autograph from Cathy. I looked into the donation and it was for the Peter Pan Children's Fund which encourages children to be philanthropists and help childrens' hospitals. Here is the link to the web site:
http://www.peterpanchildrensfund.org/

Cathy was very interested in hearing more about Sarah's syndrome and I told her to check out prisms.org. Who knows...maybe the Peter Pan Children's Fund will end up helping the Baylor Genetics department--one of the top 3 research facilities in the country for Smith-Magenis Syndrome.

Have a great week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Depression #4

Hello all -
Just a quick update to tell you about Tropical Depression #4 in the Atlantic. Good news is that majority of forecast models are keeping it from making a direct hit on the US (at least so far). And the National Hurricane Center is not forecasting that the storm will become a hurricane (but they are forecasting that it will become a tropical storm).

There is another area with only a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours (that area over the southern islands of the eastern Caribbean).

In the Pacific, an area of disturbed weather is only being given a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

Houston -- hot and mostly rain-free weather will continue through the weekend...highs each day should reach the upper 90s.

My next post will be more complete and will include how Sarah and I saw the Peter Pan performance and met Cathy Rigby.

Have a great week!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Table Rock Lake/Build a Bear Deal/La Nina Update

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Tropical Pacific and Atlantic are quiet.

On Wednesday, severe weather will be a threat from Iowa to New York. There will also be many areas with scattered storms including the southern plains, the Midwest and the northeast. Vegas and Phoenix should top out around 105. Cool spots will be the west coast of California with highs in the 60s and the Great Lakes with highs in the 70s. Expect highs in the 80s for the rest of the northern states and New Mexico and 90s elsewhere.

Houston will be hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Much lower rain chances from Thursday through the weekend. Getting hotter at the same time with highs in the upper 90s and some locations could reach 100.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do stuffed animal or animal de peluche, pronounced ah-knee-MAUL DAY peh-LOO-chay. Find out about a deal on making your favorite animal de peluche in the AND MORE section.

Too hot or too rainy (or too many mosquitos) to play outside? Let the kids exercise their brains by watching my award winning Spanish language DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. You can find Volumes 1 and 2 on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE
New Poll
We are in the Branson, Missouri area on vacation. Actually, we spend most of our time outside of Branson at a resort on Table Rock Lake. Today, with a threat of rain, we decided to head into Branson Landing--a shopping/dining area. And, of course when Sarah saw the Build-A-Bear Workshop, we had to visit. I was thinking about how many times we have made some stuffed animals there and I was wondering how many you have made there. So, that is my new poll. Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Special
And one reason I was willing to go there is because they are offering a special through August 5th...for $29.99 you can get a stuffed animal, outfit and shoes for "only" $29.99. If you have ever been there before, you know that is a good deal. We usually never get out of there for under $50 each.

Cabins Becoming a Rarity
This will be our last year at this particular resort because the cabins are being sold off individually. Already about half of them have been sold. People are buying them and fixing them up. Gordy has been coming to this resort for the last 35 years or so. All of his siblings and their kids and his parents come here. So, not staying at this resort is going to be a big change. And many of the other resorts are selling off their cabins too! So, the times are a'changing.

Found - Cathy Rigby
I now know where Cathy Rigby is. She is appearing as Peter Pan in Branson. In case you didn't know, she was an award winning gymnast and represented the US at the 1968 and 1972 Olympics (although she had an injury at the 1972 ones). Anyway, I haven't seen her show but I am impressed that she is still performing that role. She was born in 1952...so she is in her late 50s.

Happy 65th Bubba Sea Dog
Before we left for Table Rock, we headed to Kemah to see our friend Sam's "new" boat. It is actually fairly old but in great shape--a wooden boat 37 ft. long. There is an enclosed cabin with kitchen and bathroom and room for 6 people to sleep. Happy birthday Bubba Sea Dog and enjoy your "yacht club".

Liquid vs. Dry Measuring Cups
You have to rough it a bit in cabins and I forgot to bring my liquid measuring cup. Making a cake for my nephew Will and Ben's birthdays (turning 14 and 11 respectively within 2 weeks of each other). Happy Birthday guys! Anyway, I looked up the difference and there isn't any. It's just harder to measure liquid in a the shape provided with a dry measuring cup and vice versa. So, happy roughing it.

Still Trending La Nina
Latest from Climate Prediction Center, we still appear to be at the beginning of a La Nina episode. Just a refresher, that tends to be more storm in the Atlantic Basin.

3 Month Temperature/Precipitation Outlooks and Drought Outlook
Climate Prediction Center is projecting above normal temperatures for many areas, especially for Florida, Northeast and Arizona and above normal rain for much of the southeast. This will help Louisiana, which is currently dealing with extreme drought and is within the drought outlook area for improvement.

Have a great week everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Depression Bonnie

Bonnie will have to really hurry if it wants to get it's act together. The storm will probably make a second landfall near New Orleans late Saturday. The storm weakened to just a depression after moving over Florida. National Hurricane Center is forecasting mild strengthening (back to tropical storm status) before the 2nd landfall. More than anything, it will be a rainmaker for Louisiana and then most likely, Arkansas and into Missouri by mid-week.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Tropical Storm Bonnie/Best Time for Schlitterbahn/Hole Punch Clouds

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Tropical Pacific is quiet but there is newly formed Tropical Storm Bonnie over the Bahamas on the Atlantic side. The storm will bring rain to Florida over the next day or so and is expected to hit somewhere along the Gulf coast Sunday. Latest cone of uncertainty from The National Hurricane Center takes the center to south central Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. There has been a lot of shear from a nearby upper low but the low may be moving away enough that the storm could intensify more than forecast. Remember, that intensification forecasting is very error prone. Also, most of the most popular tropical forecasting models have the storm hitting Louisiana to Mississippi later in the weekend but the ensemble models (all of the forecasting models) show a spread which includes the upper Texas coast. Bottom line...too soon to tell. So, be prepared for anything at this point.

Houston, there will be some scattered storms on Friday. As we get on the west side of the storms circulation Saturday/Sunday, expect drier air to arrive--but it will be hot! Deviation of path further west, will put us in a wet flow. So stay tuned.

There is also a disturbance in the western Gulf that will be hitting northern Mexico in the next day or so...only a 30% chance of making tropical storm before landfall. Expect rain in northern Mexico and south Texas through the early part of the weekend.

Friday will be hot for the desert southwest with highs 100+ all the way to Reno. Also very hot for DC...could hit the century mark. Stormy for Florida with highs in the 80s. 60s and 70s for coastal California, Pacific Northwest and northern states. Some severe weather possible form the Midwest to New York. Elsewhere, highs mainly in the 90s.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do snake or culebra or serpiente, pronounced coo-LAY-brah or sair-pee-EHN-tay respectively. Where did cold weather help with a culebra problem? Find out in the AND MORE section.

Too hot or too rainy (or too many mosquitos) to play outside? Let the kids exercise their brains by watching my award winning Spanish language DVDs, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. You can find Volumes 1 and 2 on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.frankandpaco.com, http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com.

AND MORE

Favorite Thing About Summer Poll - Closed
My poll about what you like most about summer--is closed. 33% of you said swimming or other...gosh I wish I knew what the other thing is!!! 22% said vacation. 11% said the kids being out of school. 0% said summer movies or the heat. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated and I will have a new poll in my next post.

Best Time to Go to Galveston/Schlitterbahn
Sarah and I headed to Galveston this past Monday afternoon--for those of you in Houston, you might recall that it was quite a gully washer that day. Well, everyone thought I was crazy, but I had a pretty good idea that the weather would be fine in Galveston due to the advancement of the sea breeze front (a part of the stormy pattern in Houston). There were a few things going on meteorologically including the high pressure ridge which had brought hot and rain-free weather for days, had weakened. Other contributing factors was a large enough temperature difference between the air over land and over the water...it needs to be at least 6 degrees Fahrenheit. And, a decent onshore flow...in general the winds need to be less than 10 kt flowing offshore to onshore. The stronger the onshore flow, the further inland the storms can penetrate. Around here, the sea breeze front usually comes in during the late morning into the early afternoon. So, if you are heading to Galveston in the afternoon, the storms should have already passed.

And it was a perfect day...the rain in Houston kept the crowds away and there was a residual overcast which kept it cooler. Sarah and I had a ball. We actually made a stop at the beach first...to pick up shells, sand and driftwood for a summer science project--the original reason for our trip. But hey, since we were there--we had to hit Schlitterbahn (doesn't close until 8 pm and believe me, we closed it down).

Come to find out, if you go to Schlitterbahn in Galveston after 3 pm, it is cheaper--$31.99 for 12 to 55 and $25.99 for 3 to 11 or those 55+. If you go all day, the price is $39.99 and $31.99 respectively. But if you go to HEB, you can get those full day summer season tickets for 2 to 3 dollars cheaper. Btw, Schlitterbahn summer season ends September 19th.

Friend's Hole Punch Cloud Photo Makes Cover of June issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

When I got my latest issue of BAMS, I was excited to a familiar looking photo of a hole punch cloud. I remember seeing the photo when shown by my friend and then co-councilor of the National Weather Association, Alan Sealls. He presented a paper on the topic at one of our annual conferences. In First of all, you have probably seen these kind of configurations before. It is usually an altocumulus or cirrocumulus cloud deck with a hole in it and then some clouds in the middle. It can be quite dramatic. The article in this issue of BAMS provided a complex, technical discussion. One popular school of thought discussed by the article's authors is that there is supercooled air in the hole (air that when hit by the exhaust/particles from aircraft allows the rapid formation of ice cools). The latent heat released from freezing warms the surrounding air sufficiently to evaporate water out of the surrounding air...forming a hole. There is also a similar type of effect in what are called canal clouds...streaks of clear air with a thin line of clouds in the middle where due to the condensation trails from aircraft. Anyway, Alan is still the Chief Meteorologist WKRG in Mobile, AL. To learn more about him, check out the following link:
http://www.wkrg.com/dashboard_main/profile/11/

Last Winter Helped Florida with Python Problem
Also in the June issue of BAMS, a brief report about the benefit of last year's unusually cold winter in Florida. Over the decades, non-native animals such have Burmese and African pythons as well as some non-native iguanas and fish have wreaked havoc on the existing ecosystem. Burmese pythons have been an especially big problem because they have huge appetites and were eating some of the endangered local species (making them more endangered). Where did these animals come from--the speculation is that they were abandoned by pet owners and perhaps escaped from pet shops damaged by hurricanes.

Have a safe weekend everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman