Now the 7 pm runs are in.

Looks better than the last run set...clustering Corpus Christi to just south of Matagorda (including GFDL). No direct hits indicated for Houston area. But, again...don't let your guard down!

Update coming in the morning.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Model runs delayed

Sorry...I know some of you have been waiting...not much new to report. For some reason, the more important model runs are delayed...including GFDL and the fairly new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF). The tracking on the GFDL has been the best, except that I haven't found anything to show the performance of the HWRF. This model incorporates flight information and I think it is a work in progress.

One thing I will say is this looks like a big storm. The eye is well formed again. If you look at satellite imagery, you can see that there is some dry air...with a clearly distinct outer band. But remember, it just came out from over land. So, it just needs some time to get reorganized. Hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles from the center and tropical storm winds well beyond that.

The ridge that had been steering is developing the much discussed weakness. We shall see.

But I say starting thinking that it will hit here (Houston area). Is your home ready. What will you need to pick up outside. Are you staying or leaving. Remember that once any evacuation is ordered, and you are not in the evacuation zone, you should really try to stay put. Those people have to run from the water. If you are above 30 ft elevation...you should hide from the wind.

Now if everyone gets out and there's time. Then you can try to leave. Another thought is maybe wait until the storm passes and leave if conditions are unbearable. But remember that it may be difficult to get around debris. You may have to wait a couple days.

One of my biggest concerns are these wood fences we have everywhere, because those posts are going to become projectiles. Look around you home and figure out the most interior, fortified location. An interior bathroom is ideal.

People in the Sugar Land area are asking me how strong of winds could we get...with a healthy Category 3, 90 mph.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Yikes...Models Curving...what I was afraid of!

All the models are showing a curve...influence from the trough. Even though the strike locations are still south of the upper Texas coast, everything is shifting back north!!! Again, there is so much error at this point...everyone watch this thing. Please stock up!

I'll have more later, but I just don't like this back and forth business. I don't want anyone caught off guard.

Ike will be in the Gulf later this evening. Here we go.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Most models now agree...Ike track further south

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Well you can probably guess why I am late...trying to automate the posting of this blog. Appreciate your cooperation and patience.Feeling better about Ike but still see a few models which show an influence of the incoming trough and turn it northward. No current model runs show a direct hit for the upper Texas Coast.

Highest percentage show a King Ranch landfall late Friday, early Saturday.Please watch it though because a turn to the north could send it rapidly our way at the last minute. Let's not let our guard down.

If it moves in to our south, we should get some rain. My fall garden will appreciate that.

It should be a major hurricane at landfall...so there will be potential for damage. The King Ranch is sparsely populated although Kingsville is just to the north.

SPANISH

Since we have some rain in the forecast, thought I would do lluvia, the Spanish word for rain. This is pronounced you-vee-ah. Yep, we sure could use some you-vee-ah.

Effects of spanish immersion on children's native english vocabulary were studied. Matched on grade, sex, and verbal scores on a 4th-grade Cognitive Abilities Test (CAT), 30 th- and 6th-grade immersion students and 30 english monolinguals did 60 consecutive Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) items...Findings support the idea that Spanish immersion has English-language benefits and that positive transfer (cross linguistic influence) occurs from Spanish as a foreign language to native English receptive vocabulary.

This came from Cunningham, T.H., & Graham, C.R. (2000). Increasing native english vocabulary recognition through Spanish immersion: cognate transfer from foreign to first language. Journal of Education Psychology, 92(1), 378-49. from PsycINFO database.Looking for something educational and entertaining. Order my Dr. Toy Top 10 Education Product award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE

I am on the board of The John C. Freeman Weather Museum, the nation's first and only weather museum and it's right here in Houston, 5104 Caroline St.--the heart of the museum district. If you haven't checked it out, please do so!!! Your kids will love it!!! The museum has done so much for our community already...encouraging youngsters to pursue careers in math and science. They offer fantastic weather camps. And we have a fun Groundhog Day gala coming up on Feb. 2, 2009. You can find out more by going to http://wxresearch.org/.

That's it for now. Don't worry...I'm watching Ike for you! Have a great day and be safe!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Important Anniversary and Ike Models Interesting Trend Continues

Today is the anniversary of the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It is the worst natural disaster in U.S. history with as many as 12,000 deaths. This storm was a Category 4 storm that swept water over most of Galveston Island, toppling and crushing homes. The fatally wounded victims who didn't drown, were killed by flying debris. This was before the island had a sea wall. Ironically, some of the homes further in on the island may have been saved by debris from the destroyed homes. It piled up, making a seawall of debris. Water also swept inland from the coast...taking more lives.

As I reported in the previous post, with each model run, the projected storm paths are further west. This is again the case with the 8 pm runs. Not one of the most popular model paths has the upper Texas coast in its path.

That being said, let's keep an eye on this anyway...landfall (on Saturday) is still a long way out and if a trough develops later in the week as some models are picking up, you just never know how this storm could turn.

I'll have more on Tuesday.

Have a good night!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hurricane Ike 1 PM Update

Well the 1 pm model runs (2 pm eastern) are continuing the overall trend of moving the landfalls west with almost each run. If we keep this up, Ike will hit Mexico. Anyway, a lot could happen in 5 days (landfall is expected Saturday). Please do take this seriously and get your home and family ready...see previous posts for tips.

I looked at the statistics for the last 150 years of storms. My friend Lew Fincher of Hurricane Consulting brought this up in his email update. No storms originating in the same area as Ike have (in that period period of record) hit the Houston area. On the other hand, if you look at where they hit, many of the hits are isolated from the others...i.e. there is no significant clustering...i.e. there's always the first time and that's all it takes to make your life miserable.

Anyway, I post as frequently as appropriate. More to come!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Really...You Need to Prepare for Ike!

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

Sorry this is so late...little one has been sick and we just got back from the doctor.

Now, I'm not saying that Ike will definitely hit the Houston area...one of my favorites, GFDL is off to the right. But, the models are starting to cluster more and they as a group are averaging on an upper Texas coast landfall on Saturday.

Cash, gas, prescriptions...these are priorities all week. Of course you need supplies. Make copies of important documents and send them to a safe place beyond the danger zone. Make your contingency plans--stay or go. Let family and friends know your plans. Document all property and send the records outside the area (or make sure in waterproof containers). Think about how to protect your property and begin preliminary steps (i.e. purchasing plywood and plylox clips or other means to affix).

Ike is emerging on the south side of Cuba. It will probably make one more landfall (on the west side of Cuba) before it gets into the Gulf.

This weeks weather...hot and humid...a few showers.

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY
We did hurricane yesterday...how about the Spanish word for storm, tormenta pronounced tore-men-tah.

Here's some more research about learning Spanish:
A report on the Culver City Spanish Immersion Program designed for the bilingual education of English speaking student learning Spanish showed definite patterns emerging following the second year. The English speaking students were acquiring competence in understanding, speaking, reading, and writing Spanish, while maintaining English language proficiency.

This comes from Cohen, A.D. (1974). The culver CitySpanish immersion program: The first two years. The Modern Language Journal, 58(3), 95-103. from Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts Database.

Before the holiday and party rushes, you can get a jump on gifts by ordering my award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE
Do you just hate set in stains? That one commercial (where the lady throws a washing machine out her window) cracks me up. Well I have a lot of those because Sarah drink and dribbles chocolate milk all the time. Try some Resolve. Spray it on and let it sit. Come back in an hour. You will be amazed and how it dissolves the stain without ruining the fabric. Amazing!!!

Be safe everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman