How are we doing with Ike?

Good evening all -
First of all, if you want to help the poor folks in Haiti who have had torrential rain (this time from Ike), please check out the following Lambi Fund of Haiti . Dr. Jeff Masters has a great blog on the Weather Underground said this is a good way to help.

Still have a wide range in the model runs but as I've mentioned before GFDL has been one of my favorites. Just looking at the top model runs vs. actual track, it looks like GFDL has been closest in recent days. But, it was well to the south early on. And, I would also point out that the GFDL has made some fairly big changes in the past few days on the long term part of its forecast.

Much more Monday am.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

2 pm Ike Model Update

Just to let you know, a few of the models are splitting the storm path and tracking it off to the north...i.e. not tracking the storm toward the western Gulf. Obviously, this far out, there will lots of changes from run to run. Still have plenty of models tracking westward.

More to come!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

WARNING - Time for Houston to Prepare for Ike

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Okay...remember that trough I said would probably steer Ike north. Looks like it won't deliver.

Bottom line...we could have a hurricane hitting Texas next Saturday.

We needed that trough and secondary frontal system to steer it away and it looks like neither one is going to help us out.

Of course a lot can happen in five days or more...but please consider this your advance warning and start making plans. It is also likely that Ike will be a major hurricane as it approaches the western Gulf.

So, right now, you should use today to beef up supplies, think about protecting your home and consider your plans of staying or going. One respondent to my blog already made reservations in Austin and said that the hotel was already booking up. If you plan to leave and you have a pet, what would you do...if you want to leave them in a kennel, make sure it is in a safe area (maybe on your way to wherever you plan to go).

Now remember, that by mid-week if the storm is looking like it will hit us...the rule of thumb is run from the water and hide from the wind. Those of us inland (unless we are caring for someone who has to leave) must be prepared to stay and ride it out.

Keep you gas tanks full, get some extra cash and check out your prescription supplies.

I'll be giving more tips in the days ahead.

It is going to get back to hot and sticky this week. You will definitely know it is still summer.

SPANISH WORD FOR THE DAY
It seems appropriate to do huracán, pronounced oo-rah-con (like a con job). In case you didn't guess, this means hurricane. Now you can speak about dangerous storms in 2 languages.

Speaking of language learning, a study in Louisiana of 3rd, 4th and 5th graders who had 30 minutes of foreign language education every day, had significantly higher scores on the 1985 Basic Skills Language Arts Test than did a similar groupd that did not study a foreign language. Further by fith grade, the math scores of language students were also higher than those of students not studying a foreign language.

This came from Rafferty, E.A. (1986). Second language study and basic skills in Louisiana. U.S.; Louisiana, from ERIC database.

Before the Christmas shopping rush, you can order my award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE
I just had to share my big coup of Saturday...although I want to apologize for not telling you all about this on Friday. I was waiting to see it for myself. My girlfriend, Gloria, gave me a tip that the Talbots for Kids was closing. Sorry folks, Saturday was the last day. But I picked up a boy's christening gown for my nephew for $8.75. Unbelievable...and it is really nice! I won't tell you what I payed for Sarah's. If anyone knows of any great deals like this, pass it along, and I'll let everyone know.

Well, happy shopping and have a nice (but productive) Sunday. Be safe everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Ike Getting More Attention, A Summer Weekend to Enjoy

Happy Weekend Everyone -

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
While we are enjoying sunshine and more tolerable humidity, folks along the eastern seaboard and in the northeast are getting drenched by Hanna. The good news is that by the end of the weekend, Hanna will be back out in the northern Atlantic. It is still a tropical storm, but it won't keep its tropical characteristics much longer. I haven't found any reports of tornadoes.

Now to Ike...a complex set of steering influences making it more difficult to figure when it will turn once it gets into the Gulf on Tuesday. The good news in the southern Bahamas (where it is currently tracking) is that there has been some shear--enough to make it lose its major hurricane strength. It is now a Category 2. Strengthening is likely once it gets into the Gulf. The official forecast is that it will be back to major storm strength with 115 mph winds by Thursday. The path is a toughy. High pressure in the western Atlantic will ease eastward, which should allow the storm to start moving westward and then come under the influence of a trough over the eastern U.S. which will help it turn northwestard and north. Some location of the north central to eastern Gulf is going to get hit. It is possible that New Orleans will be hit late in the coming week. Watching the trends of the models, each new run has pushed the storm track further to the west. Now once that first trough pushes east...well, if the storm doesn't get influenced enough, that means that the track will be further west. The saving grace for the northwest Gulf is another trough (which pushes a cold front through the Houston area) later in the week. By the way, don't get too excited by the word Gulf. It is going to end up making our weather like what we're enjoying this weekend.

Speaking of this weekend's weather in Houston, the humidity returns Monday. And there could be a few showers each day through the week.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
The word for today is indudablemente pronounced n-do-dahb-lay-mehn-tay. It means undoubtedly. So when someone is having a heated discussion about someone in Spanish, you can simply interject, indudablemente. They will be sure to know that you are following along.

There are so many benefits to early language learning. According to Armstrong, P.W., & Rogerts, J.D. (1997). Basic skils revisited: The effects of foreign language instruction on reading, math, and language arts. Learning Languages, 2(3), 20-31.

Third-grade students...were randomly assigned to receive 30-minute Spanish lessons three times a week for one semester...Students in the Spanish classes scored significantly higher than the group that did nto receive Spanish instruction in math and language on the Metropolitan Achievement Test (MAT).

Your children can benefit from early language learning from the comforts of home. Order my award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

AND MORE
Do you like toads? Sarah and I do, and we have 13 toad hunter movies on youtube. There is a link to one of those movies on the links box to the right. But, if you want more, you can go to youtube.com and search for TOAD HUNTERS. The more recent movies have more information. Let me just say I have learned so much about toads.

Have a great weekend everyone and be safe!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Fun with KSEV Radio - 3 Amigos

This is a quick update to share photos from the KSEV Radio show today. I got to work with 4 amigos and they called me their amiga. Paul and Ben had just returned from The Republican National Convention. Poor Eric was surrounded! But, he was a good sport and wore the McCain shirt they brought him. I got a cool pink McCain hat. Had a great time! We even talked a little weather. Have a wonderful weekend everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Ike More Worrisome, Cecilia to speak about McCain and Sarah Palin

HURRICANES AND WEATHER
Please pray for the folks in Haiti. Many are cut off from help, even though rescue efforts have been tried. Families including children have been hungry and thirsty for days. The situation is very dire. Hanna dumped a lot of rain there!

Hanna is the most immediate concern now because of its proximity to land and anticipated landfall on the southern North Carolina coast late today/early Saturday. It does look better organized but so far no intensification. So, the east coast will have a tropical storm to deal with for the first 2/3rds of the weekend. It's going to be a fast mover.

Ike has been weakening some due to shear. But strengthening is likely after a day or so. The big shakeup today is that the storm looks like it will take a more westerly track than previously anticipated. And that means it could get into the eastern Gulf on Tuesday and threaten Florida and/or the northeastern Gulf coast. So far this year, GFDL has been doing fairly well (at least compared to most of the other models). And it is one of the models sending Ike into the eastern Gulf. This is still not a concern for Houston.

Josephine is struggling but will probably stay a minimal tropical storm, far away from land, for the next 5 days.

Enjoyed a nice walk this am. Humidity was still comfortable but it is going to get hot in the afternoons. Should be a nice weekend for the pool or beach. Next shot at rain will be end of the coming week with the approach of the next cold front.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Yesterday I introduced you to one of my favorites, temperatura. I should have told you that the ending is pronounced ahhhhhhhh, not uh. So please file away that clarification.

Today's word is estacionamiento, which means parking lot. I just love that word! The Cecilia pronunciation guide is s-stah-see-oh-nah-me-n-tow. This will serve you well as you drive to the airport and look for a place to park, especially if you are at an airport in a spanish speaking country. Yes. You are so welcome.

To learn Spanish and help your kids reap the rewards of early language learning, order my award winning DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco from from http://www.frankandpaco.com/, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

ANDMORE
I have been invited to be a commentator on KSEV radio Friday afternoon drive home from 4 to 6 pm today. You can catch it on 700 on the am dial. I have some things to share about my feelings about the upcoming election. If you have any special thoughts, please include them as a comment. I will take them all into consideration.

Have a great weekend everyone and be safe!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Hint of Fall, Palin, Ike, Josephine, Spanish word of the Day

Well, it occurred to me that I wasn't really delivering on my title and I should have made it WeatherSpanishandMore. Hurricane season won't last forever. So, if you read it here...come the end of hurricane activity, I'll switch to just non-tropical weather. But, I'm also going to add something new starting today...the spanish word of the day, and something more.

First of all -
WEATHER
Walking Sarah to school this am, oooohhhhh, ahhhhhh. Comfortable humidity and a pleasant northerly breeze. The cold front has arrived. And I won't call it a "cool" front...technically there is no such thing. The lower humidity will be with us for a few days so enjoy!

Hanna is struggling...still looks like North Carolina, timing early Saturday. It will probably be a tropical storm at landfall. Then it races up the coast. Still might move through eastern Connnecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.

Ike became a major hurricane Wednesday. Early today it weakened slightly but it is still a Category 4 storm. Long range predictions all now agree with a turn which will not allow it to enter the Gulf. Only one model shows it hitting Cuba but it still turns. We'll see if it misses the east coast.

Josephine is struggling but will probably stay a tropical storm over the next few days. This one really isn't a concern at all. Really keep an eye on it.

SPANISH
Today's Spanish word is one of my favorites: temperatura meaning temperature. I know...that isn't very hard. But I love the way it is pronounced. Now, I will give you the Cecilia key to how to pronounce it. Note this is not standard phonetics. Say tim-pair-uh-too-ruh. Practice it several times to impress your friends. Oh and to hear it in action, watch a Spanish weathercast. Love it!

ANDMORE
Watched Sarah Palin last night. Let's talk about the hair. Loved the do. Wish I had hair like her's. I know, I have hair issues. But the bangs started to bug me. They were slipping lower and lower on that one side. My advice next time...maybe a little trim and one more shot of hair spray.

Remember that your kids can reap so many benefits from early language learning and my award winning DVD is just the tool they need! Order your copy from www.frankandpaco.com, Ventura's Educational Supply, Dolo Publications, Carlex Inc., The Curious Mind Store, amazon.com, bestbuy.com, and barnesandnoble.com.

More to come.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman