Praying for New Orleans

Good evening all -Central pressure in Gustav was dropping today (indicating restrengthening) but it looks like the drop has leveled off a bit. And there is some evidence of a warming near the center (the eye). There is also some dry air being pulled in.

In any event, it is still a major hurricane (Category 3) and it bears repeating that Katrina was a high end Category 3 and Rita was a high end Category 2 (I'm talking about at landfall). Another tricky thing is that storms go through fluctuations in intensity and through eyewall replacement cycles. And I sure hope we don't get some sort of surprise from this one as it makes landfall early afternoon on Monday.

Of course, the first big scare is for New Orleans. With the hurricane force winds now out 70 miles from the center, there is going to be a pretty mean storm surge affecting New Orleans and it will be happening early in the day on Monday. Everyone should be praying for these folks. The actual center landfall will probably be about 40 to 60 miles west of there.What happens after that?

Well, I think the storm is going to slow down and produce a lot of rain as it tracks northwestward...probably into Texas. Remember that inland flooding has been the biggest killer from many of the most recent decades storms.

Went to the grocery store this evening. Folks are paying attention...almost all cleaned out on the water. Pats on the backs all around. Remember, you can use all kinds of containers to store up that water. I'll try to post frequently until this is over.

In the meantime, start your Christmas shopping early by going to www.frankandpaco.com, Amazon.com, Best Buy.com, or Barnes & Noble.com and purchase my award winning DVD for children called Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. Early language learning enhances cognitive development and improves standardized scores in math and science. We have to cultivate our next hurricane trackers/forecasters now!

Be safe everyone.
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

More consistency with model runs 2 pm Sunday

They're coming into agreement now...even NGFDL. Looks like some rain on the way for parts of Texas. Mom says the sage are blooming like crazy in Bandera...they want the rain there.

Stay tuned and go to www.frankandpaco.com, Amazon, Best Buy, or Barnes & Noble to order your copy of our award winning educational DVD for children, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco.

More to come!
Cecilia Poole
Weather Wonder Woman

Gustav keeping us on our toes

Hi everyone -

First order of business, look to see if you are in the Hurricane Warning area.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COASTFROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. AHURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

If an evacuation order has been issued, get going! See my last blog for what to take. Remember run from the water (storm surge area) and hide from the wind.

If you are staying...pick up the loose objects in your yard and bring them inside. Tell your neighbors to do the same. Finish stocking up...14 gallons of water per person, cash, full gas tank, prescriptions, special items like diapers, formula, powdered milk, special items for the elderly. Make sure you have bleach...8 to 16 drops per gallon can be used to make dirty water potable. Fill up large containers, pots etc with water. Put a full trash can by the toilet in case you need it later for flushing. Make sure you watch that the little ones don't get into the water. Of course you need batteries and flashlights and a battery powered radio. Take pictures and/or video of your home and belongings. Put that and all important documents in water tight containers or packaging and place in a safe place (preferably up high and protected). Then, you look around for the most protected location in your house...an interior room or closet is ideal. A bathroom on the inside is best.

Now back to the forecast. The models are showing a turn again but most not until after hitting south central Louisiana early on Monday. Don't like the looks of the NGFDL with its ever persistent forecast of a turn that could potentially affect the Houston area. So let's not be cocky and make sure we have all of our hurricane supplies in place.

It's almost September. It's not too early to purchase Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, www.frankandpaco.com. This is my award winning DVD for children. So many benefits...but so little time...make sure you order it for your favorite little ones today!

More to come. Be safe everyone!!!

Cecilia Sinclair Wonder Weather Woman

Gustav is in the Gulf!

It's gotten stronger and closer. Gustav is in the Gulf and by the time you read this, it will probably be a Category 5 hurricane.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from High Island to the Alabama/Florida border. Notice that Houston is not included. The watch means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in that area within 36 hours.

This likely will be a major hurricane at landfall...hopefully wherever it hits, it will be on the down side of an eye wall replacement cycle. In other words, hopefully it won't be at its maximum strength when it hits land.

People in the watch area should make sure they have all the supplies they need. And they should listen closely for evacuation announcements. If you are in an evacuation area, please leave. They aren't just making this stuff up. You are in a place that could be inundated by a storm surge and that means that if you get the storm surge, your chances of survival are very low. One cubic yard of water weighs over a 1000 pounds. I don't know about you, but that would knock me down.

If you do leave, make sure you have plenty of water, a full gas tank, cash, prescriptions and 3 days worth of supplies--including food and clothing changes. Call ahead to make sure you can go where you want to go. Make sure friends and family know your plans. Don't wait for a shelter...the Red Cross shelters in the danger zone won't open until after the storm has passed. And they are not pleasant places to stay. There are minimal supplies. You may have to sleep on the floor. Don't forget to make plans for your pet. Shelters do not usually allow pets.

For Houston, model runs looking better. Not all models are showing a turn--some continue the storm northward (without a turn after landfall). We are still here!

More to come!

If you are looking for something to stimulate your child's cognitive development, try language learning. Be sure to check out my DVD series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco at http://www.frankandpaco.com/. Remember that 80% of neurological development occurs by the age of 6. So, get going now!!!

Be safe everyone.
Cecilia Sinclair, Wonder Weather Woman

Ahhhh haaaa! Gustav is a Major Storm!

Good Saturday morning--2 interesting developments this am with almost all of the models showing the storm turning either before a landfall or after. None of the scenarios show a direct hit on Houston. The turning has to do with forecast high pressure strengthening from the north as the storm moves northward. The storm's path will be affected according to the amount of strengthening of the high pressure. If the high pressure doesn't strengthen, then Gustav will be influenced more by high pressure to the east. The circulation around high pressure is clockwise. So if you are south of that, then you are being influenced by east to westward currents.

Gustav also strengthened rapidly overnight...it is now a major hurricane. Anything stronger than 111 mph sustained winds is a major hurricane.

If the storm does make landfall over southwest Louisiana and then turns, what will be the weather impact in Houston? It could be minimal except for some rain and squalls of gusty winds...possibly some tornadoes.

But...since some of the model runs show a turn before hitting...we should anticipate the possibility of a turn right at landfall with the storm potentially scraping along the coast...a more devastating scenario for people in the coastal area affected.

What to do this weekend...get ready for the worst. Again...supplies on hand and be thinking about what you want to do if the storm looks like it will hit your area. Again, there is a lot of error and know that intensification forecasting has very little skill at this point. See my previous blog for more tips on getting ready for a storm.

Almost 3 months to the end of hurricane season and less than 4 months until Christmas. What is a better gift than giving a child the benefits of early language learning. Buy my award winning Spanish teaching DVD, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, at www.frankandpaco.com, Best Buy, Amazon or Barnes & Noble.

More to come!
Weather Wonder Woman

Gustav and Hanna - What Will Happen?!

Going into the Labor Day Weekend, many Gulf Coast eyes are on Gustav. Who can answer that million dollar question--where is it going? Well, first of all, let me just say that there is no one single person. On the plus side, we have a no nonsense man named Bill Read at the helm of The Hurricane Center (Tropical Prediction Center) and that is a very good thing.

I've known Bill for a long time--working with him professionally for the last 12 years. I was in the media and of course, he was with the government, working as the Meteorologist in Charge at the Houston/Galveston NWS. Bill was always steady and straightforward. He won't sugar coat, and he won't sensationalize. So, really, really listen to him.

One of the first things he'll tell you is this far out we just don't know. Even up to 24 hours from landfall, the error is close to 100 miles either way. At 3 days out, it is plus or minus 300 miles. So please don't completely focus on that middle line in the center of the Cone of Uncertainty. You know the one I'm talking about--you check it out online.

At this point, everyone along the Gulf Coast should be checking supplies. If the storm comes this way, you'll need 14 gallons of water per person, 2 weeks worth of prescriptions, a full gas tank, cash on hand and of course lots of non-perishable food. Make sure you know where your critical documents are...maybe make an extra copy and mail it to safe location. Let friends and family know what your plans are--will you stay or go. If your area is hit, power will be out a while. Depending on the severity of the storm, you could lose power for weeks. If you are thinking about buying a compressor, remember most only power a small appliance like a fan...maybe a refrigerator. You aren't going to cool the whole house with it. And don't use it during the storm...wait until the storm has passed and operate it from a well ventilated place...definitely not in the house or garage.

Okay...so what do I think at this point. Well, I'm still in the Houston area this Friday evening. I think the landfall will be anywhere from southwest Louisiana to southern Mississippi. One of my favorite hurricane forecast models is GFDL and I tend to give that track a lot of weight. Keep in mind that even though you see some tracks that take the storm inland south of Houston, those tracks are from lower performing models. There are other factors to consider but I won't go into that now.

Someone asked me if Gustav and Hanna could combine...the answer is no. There is something called the Fujiwara effect and it boils down to all storms have their own counter-clockwise rotation which will tend to make them rotate around each other (if they get close enough). Eventually, if they haven't made landfall, one or both of the storms will encounter less favorable conditions and weaken.

Well, that's enough hurricane talk for tonight. Be safe and make good use of your time this weekend---and not just for hurricane preparation. It's less than 4 months until Christmas, and if you are doing some early Christmas shopping, be sure to check out my educational video series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank and Paco available through www.frankandpaco.com, Amazon, Best Buy, and Barnes and Noble. There are many benefits to early language learning including higher math and science scores on standardized tests and improved hypothesizing in science. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, there is the connection between Cecilia being a meteorologist and promoting early language learning.
Take care,
Wonder Weather Woman Cecilia Sinclair