Drought Outlook/Is It Okay to Wear Blue Jean Shorts?

WEATHER

Hey everyone--well a good buddy of mine sent me an email recently and said "come on girl, get your head back in the game". The truth is that I am constantly looking at the weather...but I have just been very busy with my new full time job/life in Austin. One neat thing is that I am handling my brother's social media business page in Facebook and 'also his Twitter account. I will frequently post concise weather updates as his "meteorologist mortgage partner". So, if you ever want to see any of those go to Facebook and look for Sam Whitworth with Guaranty Mortgage.

I see things all the time which I would like to share with you. Know that I miss posting here so much and as I said before, I'll do the best I can to post when I can.

I've had a lot of guilt about this and one friend of mine who is a mom of special needs child told me not to be so hard on myself--we have a very good reason to be busy "elsewhere".

Anyway, I've really been watching the tropics--especially with the worst drought ever in Texas--looking for some tropical rains! Dr. Jeff Masters of The Tropical Weather Underground recently pointed out that more than 75% of Texas is in the Exceptional drought category. That is the worst possible category! I have more on the drought situation in my AND MORE section.

In the tropics, as I write this post, within the last hour or so, the National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression #7 has become Tropical Storm Gert. This storm will bring rain and gusty winds to Bermuda tonight. About a day's travel to the southeast is another area of disturbed weather which The National Hurricane Center says has only a 30% chance of developing. Over the next day or so, the only threat to land from both of these systems is to Bermuda.

There was another area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic. But it fell apart. I'll keep watching to see if there will be any redevelopment as that area had the best chance of threatening the mainland U.S. eventually.

For those of you in Austin...we finally dropped below 100 on Saturday (yesterday)...the high was only 97. It was cloudy almost all day with some high cloudy outflow from decaying storms to the north. I took Sarah to the pool and I actually caught a chill a couple times. Brrrrr....

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY

Let's do drought or sequía, pronounced say-KWEE-ah. This sequía is beyond dry, it's just downright pitiful. To learn about the drought, go to the AND MORE section.

We now have available Volumes 1, 2, and 3 of our DVD education videos for children, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco as well as the CD of the music from Volume 1 through 3 on our web site, www.frankandpaco.com. Buy volumes 1 through 3 and get the music CD free. We call it the bundle.

You can also find this award winning education series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com. P.S. THEY MAKE TERRIFIC GIFTS!!!

AND MORE
Prayer Request
Please pray for my mother-in-law, Mary Ann. She was recently diagnosed with Stage 4 Lymphoma and it came over her in the span of 2 to 3 weeks. She has been such an amazing woman...raising 5 fantastic children and worked as the Director of Religious Education at her church. It is very difficult to see someone so full of life and vigor become so weak. I am praying for her to not lose heart and for the strength of all of her family who are working so hard to get her through her illness and treatment.

Drought Update and Outlook
I have posted the most recent drought update and outlook. First, some good news for New Mexico and part of the southeast as some improvement is expected through October 31st. For Texas, however, only persistence is expected during this time period.

3 Month Temperatures and Precipitation Outlooks
I have also posted the 3 month temperature and precipitation outlooks. For most of the south above normal temperatures are expected, while above normal precipitation is expected for the northern plains.

Is it Wrong to Wear Blue Jean Shorts
My brother recently informed my husband that it is not cool to wear blue jean shorts. Then, shortly after that, we saw a billboard in Austin which said "It is Never Okay to Wear Blue Jean Shorts". And yet, when I was shopping recently, I saw blue jean shorts on the sales rack. What do you think? Please answer my latest poll about this very important matter. Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

My poll about paying attention to hurricane season this year compared to last year is closed. 40% of respondents said they are are (60% said they aren't). Thanks to all who participated.

Have a great week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

2011 Hurricane Season/Black Cat Sighting/Sonic Skaters

HURRICANES AND WEATHER

Hi again everyone! It has been nearly 3 months since I last posted. We moved into our new home on March 25th and between all of that, new job and lots of family events, I have not been able to carve out any time to blog. But I have thought of things I want to share a million times.

Of course today is very important as it marks the beginning of the 2011 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic basic (Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico). As we kick it off, the Atlantic basin has a small area of low pressure just off the coast of the Carolinas. See figure at right. According to the National Hurricane Center, this area only has a 10% chance of developing as it drifts westward into land over the next day or so.

For a complete discussion of the forecast for this hurricane season, see my AND MORE section.

Weather wise, there is a slight risk for severe storms for west Texas and extreme eastern New Mexico. There is also a slight risk for eastern Michigan.

Houston and Austin will continue on the dry side through the week with and increased chance for rain late in the weekend and early in the coming week. Houston has a better chance for thunderstorms, but Austin has at least a chance. Lows will be in the low 70s with highs primarily in the low 90s. Austin hit a record high of 100 early last week. Hopefully, this is not a sign of things to come this summer. See the AND MORE section for a discussion of the Climate Prediction Center's 3 months outlooks.

For the next few days, there will be some troughiness out west and that will allow rain for parts of the west. Just a few days ago, my sister sent me a photo of her kids playing in the new snow in the Lake Tahoe area. They have had a ridiculous number of snow days and the kids will be going school at least until mid June.

The Midwest has been unusually cold and as we know wet. At my nephew's graduation celebration a week ago Friday in Council Bluffs, Iowa it was in the 50s and windy.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY

Let's go with vacation or de vacaciones , pronounced day vah-cah-see-OWN-ehs. Woohoo, it is time for de vacaciones. Be safe and have fun!

We have released our Volume 3 DVD and Volumes 1 through 3 music review CD for Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. We have a special at our web site. Buy the bundle--Volumes 1 through 3 and get the music review CD for FREE!!! To take advantage of that offer, go to our web site:

http://www.frankandpaco.com

You can also find my award winning education series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, Volumes 1 and 2, on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com. P.S. THEY MAKE TERRIFIC GIFTS!!!


AND MORE
Summary
There are several forecasts for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. To summarize, all three of my favorites are forecasting an above normal hurricane season. The main reason for this is that the water temperatures are still running above normal, we continue in a multi-decadal pattern of above normal activity and even though the La Nina episode is winding down, the effect of it (which is reduced wind shear in the Atlantic basic) is expected to linger through the summer.

National Hurricane Center 2011 Hurricane Forecast
The following was copied directly from the National Hurricane Center's web site. Special shout-out to my friend Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center. I am so proud of you and wish you all the best this season.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

•12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:


•6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:


•3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

2011 Hurricane Season Forecast from the Weather Research Center

The following are the chances for a tropical storm to strike these locations (first number) and the average chance of same is the 2nd number.

Texas 70% 51%
Mexico 40% 40%
Louisiana to Alabama 90% 59%
West Florida 90% 71%
East Florida 60% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 70% 56%
East Coast of U.S. 30% 36%

The figure at right shows the areas with highest strike probability in red.

And here is their forecast for the total number of storms.
Number of Named Storms 10
Number Intensifying into Hurricanes 6

Dr. William Gray's team's 2011 Hurricane Forecast

16 named storms
9 become hurricanes
5 of those develop into major hurricanes.

72% probability that one of those major hurricanes will strike somewhere along the entire U.S. east coast, from Brownsville, Texas to northern Maine

48% chance of a major hurricane striking somewhere along the U.S. east coast


2011 Hurricane Season Names

The World Meteorological Organization puts out lists of names for the Atlantic season in 6 year sets. If a given year produces a particularly bad storm for a given name, then that name is retired and 6 years later a new name is inserted. It has been 6 years since Katrina and Rita--notice the new names in their place--Katia and Rina. Here is the set of names for this year.

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Outlooks - June, July and August
The outlook is above normal temps for the southwest into the southeast and cooler than normal for the Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The Northwest is expected to have above normal rain chances. See figures at right

Drought Assessment and Outlook
There is exceptional drought right now for much of Texas and New Mexico. The outlook is for some easing of that drought in central and eastern Texas. Keep your fingers crossed.

2nd Annual National Flood Workshop
The Weather Research Center is holding their 2nd annual National Flood Workshop in Houston from February 27th through March 1st in Houston. Abstracts are due in August. I attended the 1st one, and it was outstanding! To learn more, go to:
http://www.wxresearch.com/nfw/

News Other Than Weather Forecasts and Hurricane Season
We are really enjoying living near Brushy Creek north of Austin. The area is full of nature and yet you are very close to modern conveniences. Gordy and I both saw some kind of wild black cat when we were getting the mail. It was not a housecat...being much larger but not as large as what I would consider a mountain lion. It was not a bobcat as it had a long tail. I looked on the Internet and it said that there have never "officially" been any black jaguars in Texas. But we know what we saw. Some neighbors told us there have been news stories about this black cat...I have not looked them up yet, but I will let you know. Bottom line is that there is a lot of wildlife out here. We see deer all the time.

Finally, in case you were wondering about those skaters at Sonic, I did my own little interview recently. The guy told me that at least for their store the manager requires at least one employee to skate per shift. Everyone is expected to be able to skate, but usually the best skater is chosen. All I know is that I would kill myself doing that.

Have a great week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

3 Month Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks/Poll on Charlie Sheen/We are in Austin

WEATHER
Sunday will be a wet day for the eastern seaboard from Florida to Massachusetts. Very cold for the northern plains with highs in the single digits. Pleasant for the south central and southwest with low humidity, sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s and 80s. Look for snow for the Rockies, northern plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

Houston and Austin, rain is either coming to an end or has already ended. A windy day today and then pleasant on Sunday with chilly morning temperatures and highs in the 60s and 70s. Some rain possible mainly for Houson middle of the coming week. Next best chance for T-Storms a week from Monday.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do toiler paper or papel higiénico, pronounced pah-PELL ee-hee-EHN-ee-coh. Find out where I saw the best papel higiénico dispenser ever in the AND MORE section.

Very excited developments for my DVD Spanish language series...we received our first royalty check from a company called Wonderscape Entertainement--woohoo!

We have released our Volume 3 DVD and Volumes 1 through 3 music review CD for Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. We have a special at our web site. Buy the bundle--Volumes 1 through 3 and get the music review CD for FREE!!! To take advantage of that offer, go to our web site:

http://www.frankandpaco.com

You can also find my award winning education series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, Volumes 1 and 2, on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com. P.S. THEY MAKE TERRIFIC GIFTS!!!

AND MORE
Cecilia is now in Austin
I am now resurfacing after completing (well almost completing) the rigors of a city to city move. We are staying with my sister Liz thanks sis!) in Austin until our house is done being built. We should be getting into it at the end of the month. Her apartment is super nice (much nicer than anything I ever stayed in). It is 2 bedrooms and 2 baths...so we have our own space. We eased into this living arrangement very easily.

Sarah has completed her first week at her new school. She made an amazingly smooth transition and is very happy.

I start my new job on Monday.

This week we finalized the closing of our house in Missouri City. We have been enjoying the Brushy Creek part area which is close to where we will be living. It is an amazing never to be developed area complete with lake, dam and 8 mile running trail. The weather has been amazing.

Overall, the lifestyle seems to be more laid back here and that is nice for us in our old age. Ha! Ha!

Of course we have been eating out, enjoying new restaurants. The picture at right is of an amazing toilet paper dispenser I saw in a restaurant yesterday. What a great design...no more fumbling to find the end of the toilet paper roll...no more mess. Love it! Who know such a simple thing could make my day so much.

We are amazed at how many restaurants, retail stores and especially pharmacies there are around here. Are people sick more often in Austin?

I can tell the air is cleaner. My allergies are almost non-existent (at least at the moment).

I will be working full time. So, I won't promise frequent posts. But I will do what I can as I love to discuss the weather.

Gave my first weather forecast to the general contractor working on our new home. He had to pour some concrete and needed to know when it would rain. I think I nailed it...hope it worked out for him.

New Poll
My poll on whether you enjoyed being off the last dangerous winter weather day is closed. 77% said they did. 0% said they did not. And 22% said they did not get the day off. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated.

My new poll is about Charlie Sheen. I will give you my thoughts about his situation after the poll closes as I don't want to skew the answers. Do you think his recent problems will result in a positive impact on people with addictions? Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for participating.

3 Month Temperature/Precipitation Forecasts
The March through May temperature from the Climate Prediction Center calls for above normal temperatures for much of the southern half of the country and below normal tempeatures for the Pacific northwest through the western Great Lakes states and for the southern half of Alaska. For precipitation, the outlook is for drier than normal conditions for all of the south and into the central plains and also for coastal Alaska.

Drought-wise, from Arizona to Florida and northward through Virginia there will be persistence to development of drought. Northern Alabama and western Tennessee and Hawaii will experience an improvement in conditions.

This tree is not dead
Our new house has a Gum Bumelia tree. At first we thought it was a dead oak tree, but then we figured out what it was. These kinds of trees are all over around here and there is often mistletoe in the branches. I was interested to read that the sap was often chewed like gum. The attached link says that it is an evergreen but the ones around here have no leaves right now.
http://aggie-horticulture.tamu.edu/ornamentals/natives/bumelialanuginosa.htm

Have a great week everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Icey roadways possible this afternoon through Thurs. morning

A dicey situation today, Wed. 2/9 as light freezing rain is falling (as I write this post) at locations as close in to Houston as Tomball.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this afternoon. If you are driving anywhere this afternoon, except the immediate coast, be especially careful about driving over bridges and overpasses. Pay attention as temperatures will continue to drop as cold air filters into the area with a cold front. At the same time, a drying trend will begin with rain/sleet ending area wide by 6 pm.

Problems to watch out for overnight and early Thursday are any locations which have ice remaining. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s across most of the area tonight.

So, take side roads if needed and if possible, just stay home.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Week's Weather/Winter Storm Photos/Favorite Super Bowl Snack

WEATHER
Very cold start to the week for the northern plains and Great Lakes with highs near zero in North Dakota and single digits to teens elsewhere in the area. Look for snow around the Great Lakes and southward to Cincinnati. Also some snow showers around Boise Idaho. Some thunderstorms are possible from New Orleans into Florida. Pleasant for California and the southwest with highs in the 60s and 70s (except New Mexico will be in the 30s and 40s). The southeast and southern plains will have highs mainly in the 50s while the Pacific Northwest will have highs in the 40s and the Rockies will be mainly in the 30s. The Northeast will have highs in the 20s and 30s while the East Coast will have highs in the 40s and 50s. The Midwest and Ohio Valley will have highs in the 20s and 30s.

Nice warmup this Sunday in Houston. But a new cold front arrives in a few hours. Might get a sprinkle or too. Today was the first day in 5 days that the low was not in the 20s. Low at Bush IAH airport this morning was a balmy 32. Cooler on Monday. Then a slight warmup Tuesday before another cold front arrives Wednesday into Thursday. Look for some showers on Wednesday. But, it does not look like there will be an ice storm.

SPANISH WORD OF THE DAY
Let's do snack or merienda, pronounced mare-ee-EHN-dah. What is your favorite Super Bowl merienda? I love guacomole!

We have released our Volume 3 DVD and Volumes 1 through 3 music review CD for Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco. We have a special at our web site. Buy the bundle--Volumes 1 through 3 and get the music review CD for FREE!!! To take advantage of that offer, go to our web site:

http://www.frankandpaco.com

You can also find my award winning education series, Let's Learn Spanish with Frank & Paco, Volumes 1 and 2, on the shelf (in the education section) at Barnes & Noble stores or you can order them from http://www.amazon.com, http://www.bn.com, http://www.bestbuy.com, or http://www.ebay.com/. Our ESL (English as a Second Language) version can be found at http://www.frankypaco.com. P.S. THEY MAKE TERRIFIC GIFTS!!!

AND MORE
Friday's ice storm in Houston just shows that it doesn't take much ice to make a big mess. Most precipitation amounts in the area were less than 1/10 of an inch. Snow did not materialize around Houston...just too warm aloft. But as we saw, it was plenty cold at the surface to freeze the rain on contact with the ground. Hope you enjoy the photos at right.

My poll on whether you think the economy is rebounding is closed. 50% of you said they think it is. 25% said they don't think it is. And 25% said they are not sure. Only one answer was allowed. Thanks to all who participated.

My new poll is about the recent winter storms that hit much of the nation. Did you enjoy getting a day off from work or school. Or did you get a day off? I realize that many of you may have had several days off. So, please excuse the fact that I said day off instead of day(s) off. Only one answer is allowed. Thanks in advance for particpating.

Hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl. Have a great week everyone!

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

What winter weather to expect through Fri. 2/4/11

Hello everyone -
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for southeast Texas effective from noon today through noon Friday.

The warning means that dangerous winter weather like ice is expected.

I think the timing of the worst of the weather will be from 9 pm tonight through 6 am Friday. Problem is that even if the precpitation stops at 6 am, there will be a lot of icey roads. So, I wouldn't be surprised if there are lots and lots of school and even business cancellations. Conditions should be vastly improved by Friday afternoon.

Snow is possible (several inches), especially for area north of the 59 corridor. But the biggest concern is ice. The 1000-500 mb thicknesses south of the 59 corridor may not ever be low enough for snow production. But, the low level temperatures will be below freezing for a good portion of the area. And, that means that if cold rain falls, it has a good chance of turning into ice, especially for exposed bridges and overpasses.

Be safe everyone!
Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman

Storms/Arctic Cold/Snow Houston Area

Hello all -
Big, big changes coming...

First slight risk for severe storms Tuesday morning.
Lows in 20s for most of Houston area Wed./Thurs/and Fri mornings and highs Wed and Thurs mainly in 30s. Coldest feeling day will be Wed. as it will be quite windy.

Snow possible Thursday pm into Friday morning...will have to keep checking this...but could get an inch or more in Houston area depending on how things come together.

Cecilia Sinclair
Wonder Weather Woman